Top analyst: PS3 will outsell Xbox 360, Wii
By John Pospisil
A top analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, Michael Pachter, has predicted that ultimately the PlayStation 3 (PS3) will be the winner of the console war, taking 36% market share in 2009, ahead of Ninendo’s Wii with 34%, and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 with 30%.
These predictions don’t include the Japanese market, where Pachter expects Wii to dominate the market until at least 2011 with 51% marketshare, leaving 44% marketshare for the PS3, and not much for the Xbox 360. Sorry Microsoft.
So why does Pachter think that the PS3 will eventually dominate?
Well it all comes down to Blu-ray. Pachter thinks that the outcome of the console war will be dictated by whether the movie studios adopt Blu-ray or HD-DVD.
“Should the studios embrace Sony’s Blu-ray standard for high definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba’s HD-DVD format, we think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate software sales for years to come,” Pachter wrote.
In the current climate, where the PS3 seems to be under constant attack, it’s a brave call for Pachter to tip the PS3 as the ultimate winner of the console war.
With the PS3 in a relatively weak position, game developers are starting to embrace the Wii. Namco-Bandai, for example, has announced that it will release 37 Wii games in the 2008 fiscal year, compared to just 23 PlayStation 3 games.
I suspect that what will determine who wins the console war will not be which movies are available for each of the consoles, but which games are available.
That’s what consoles are about.
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Tips N4G
May 10th, 2007
Crappy thing, he select the markets in order to obtain wanted result. For these, reduce the market to New Zeland and then you have 80% os PS3…
May 11th, 2007
I thought he was going to say something insightful like the X360 plays games that look nice , but are no different from previos generation games . The Wii gives a new and creative way to play previous generation games . But the PS3 may just have enough power to create or invent a new way to game ?
May 13th, 2007
What i’d like to know is how they decide the marketshare is next gen only when ps2 still owns about 65-70% of the entire gaming marketshare, that’s out of 100% including all the other systems, except for pc…
May 22nd, 2007
It is interesting that with all the “360 is dominating PS3″ analysts forget that many PS2 owners are just waiting for prices to come down before buying a PS3 or 360. Wii is not a direct competetor, and I think people will get bored of it anyway, most of the people I know who have one are regretting they didn’t get a 360 or PS3.