Three reasons why Nintendo won’t sell 35 million Wiis
George Harrison, the head of marketing at Nintendo of America recently declared that the company would sell 35 million Wiis in the US by 2011 or 2012.That would make the Wii almost as popular as the best-selling console of all time, the PlayStation 2 (PS2). Sony has sold more than 38 million PS2s in the US since 2000 (115 million worldwide).
Harrison said that Nintendo is increasing Wii production to meet the projected demand.
While it’s great to see Nintendo enjoying success with the Wii, the company needs to recognize that a number of factors will come into play during the Wii’s lifecycle, which will mean it won’t sell anything like 35 million units in the US.
First and foremost, the Wii is a low-spec, low-price console that is designed for the casual or light gamer. It has some nifty features, such as its motion-detecting Wii remote, but it’s not a console designed for the hardcore gamers. In the US, it’s the hardcore gamers who will decide who wins this round of the console war (if you believe the analysts).
Second, because Nintendo has sacrificed power in the interests of affordabiity, the console will not age well, compared to the technically superior Xbox 360 and the PS3. There’s no question that as games developers learn how to push the Xbox 360 and PS3 hardware, the games will get better. It’s not clear, in fact, it’s unlikely, that the same scope for improvement exists with the Wii.
Third, because the Wii is already priced so well, there’s less room for price cuts. Microsoft has already hinted that it’s prepared to lower the price of the Xbox 360, and there’s no doubt that as the years pass by, Sony will also look at the doing the same with the PS3 (just as did with the PS2). Both the Xbox 360 and PS3 will start to look more attractive as their price points get closer to the Wii’s.
Take note Nintendo, pride comes before a fall.
Related Posts:
19 Responses to “Three reasons why Nintendo won’t sell 35 million Wiis”
Leave a Reply:
You must be logged in to post a comment. Don't have an account? Register today!
May 27th, 2007
[...] GAMER.BLORGE.com Blog Archive Three reasons why Nintendo won’t sell 35 million Wiis Quote: [...]
May 28th, 2007
I disagree with the price cut comment seeing as Nintendo are probably in a better position to do so than either Microsoft or Sony. They make a profit on each console sold already, unlike Sony (for example) who appear to be losing hundreds of dollars on each console. Therefore as the cost of the components of the Wii further decrease, the price will come down quicker than their competition.
And about the unpowered insides of the Wii comment – that’s ridiculous! Look at the past generations of console ‘wars’ – the least powerful has always sold the most. The Playstation beat the N64 and the PS2 beat both the Xbox and the GameCube even though they were more technologically advanced. Even now, the technically inferior DS is beating the PSP to a pulp so I’m not quite sure how you arrived at these ‘reasons’ because they don’t quite seem to make sense.
May 28th, 2007
James got owned by Mark’s logic. ^_^
May 28th, 2007
This is a very poorly thought out article. From the very first assertion, it is obvious the writer didn’t think out very well what he said. I don’t necessarily disagree that Nintendo won’t sell 35 million consoles in the US, but not for the reasons cited.
Firstly, you state that hardcore gamers will determine the course of this console war. Where did you get that? Hardcore gamers are a small minority of total gamers. The market has ALWAYS been driven by casual gamers. That was the key to the PS2’s success. You think there’s 100 million hardcore gamers in this world? And to further refute your point, casual gamers have already had their voices heard this generation, by ignoring hardcore-oriented systems in favor of the Wii and the DS (and do you think hardcore gamers are the ones still purchasing those PS2s?). You may say this market is fickle, but who’s more fickle here? It’s those casual gamers that are still buying Wiis in May while 360s and PS3s sit on store shelves collecting dust.
On your second point, you’re reciting the same logic used before the Wii ever came out, that its graphics are too aged to make an impact. But your logic has an important flaw: if people aren’t buying the product for graphics, does it matter how they age? Let’s face it, Wii’s graphics are already aged. Developers aren’t even bother giving their games Gamecube-level graphics, let alone above that. So in fact, 360 and PS3 are at a disadvantage here. Their primary selling point is graphics, and as advanced as they are, technology progresses so fast that they will be obsolete in a couple of years. Then what’s their selling point? The Wii could exist for 10 years without aging at all, because they sell on the controller concept entirely, of which they have no precedent and no competition.
Mark has already poked holes in your third argument, but to add onto that, the Wii also has a lower basement than the other consoles. Nintendo could lower the price of the Wii to $99 without diminishing the perceived quality of their product. That’s the problem with marketing their graphics as their main advantage, “perceived value.” If they lower the price of their console too low, consumers will view the product as inferior, just as what happened with the Gamecube. You go into “toy” territory, and that would be an extremely damaging image for Microsoft and Sony to have for their consoles. With Wii though, they market it as more of a toy as it is. The cheaper the better. And in 3 years or so, the price of the components of the system itself will be so low they can make a profit even at $99.
Nintendo can very easily sell 35 million systems in the US. I only think they won’t because I wouldn’t be surprised if they release a revamped Wii, or “Wii Lite” before that time. But other than that, they’ve dipped into a market so deep that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they may just outsell their previous behemoth, the NES.
And BTW, Nintendo has overall been very modest about their success. They’ve shown none of the pride or arrogance of their competition. A lesson learned from the past, I suppose. So you might want to sound that final warning to Sony or Microsoft instead of Nintendo. For Sony though, that might be too little too late.
May 28th, 2007
You speak like the HARDCORE choose the Wii but don’t want to make it be popular like the PS2 when it murdering PS2 US sales to this point in both systems time.
Your comments and your ‘HARDCORE GAMER’ percipetion kill your own logic!
May 28th, 2007
This is quite possibly some of the worst so-called logic I’ve ever heard. I’m not going to even bother pointing out all the flaws in your assertation James, since previous posters have done a more than adequate job of doing so. Honestly, I expect to hear this type of “argument” from the tweens down at the local EB or Gamestop, not from someone trying to cover the industry in a serious manner.
May 28th, 2007
Trent shoulda written the article … well, any of the the previous posters should havce for that matter
May 28th, 2007
you know, i dont own a wii, i will someday, but not today, i have a ps3 and a 360, but i have to agree with all of the posters above me, this article is overly generalized
May 28th, 2007
I expect the console to age very well due to CONTENT. Take the virtual console… We may soon have hundreds of games available, not just 60 or 70, and we will be seeing new systems added in the near future, like the Neo Geo.
We also have not seen even the first generation of games that third parties have really had time to think through. Wii has only begun to tap its potential, and even with Wii outselling PS3 by 7 to 1 consistently in Japan, that number could be 25 to 1 for all we know. There quite simply is not enough supply to know.
Insurmountable odds for both Sony and Microsoft at this point, I’m afraid.
May 30th, 2007
1 word why Wii won’t sell 35 million: FAD
May 30th, 2007
I am amazed at how people continue to feed off this logic of the Wii being “underpowered”. It is underpowered according to what standard? Who sets that standard? And why is that the only standard that determines the quality of a console? People who focus on this logic fail to understand one basic principle about hardcore gamers like myself: graphics are one of the LAST aspects I evaluate in a game. We are hardcore GAMERS, not hardcore painting admirers…
As Trent already explained, Sony and Microsoft are leaving a trail of destruction behind themselves. Any given console they create is considered powerful and up-to-date for a short while, but that same console suddenly becomes ranked as “underpowered” and old. Nintendo, on the other hand, invests heavily in the EXPERIENCE, which never dies. I still play SNES games on occasion because they present solid gameplay and difficult challenges!
To Mark (and the many others out there who call the Wii a fad), you fail to realize that the Wii has all bases covered. Let us assume for one minute that you are 100% correct. Pretend that the novelty of the Wii remote wore off and people stopped liking them. Well, Nintendo can and does produce games that take advantage of the Gamecube controller (there are ports on the side of the Wii, for those who didn’t know). So, at any given moment, Nintendo can bounce back and forth between a new experience and a classic feel. Either way, Nintendo still wins.
June 1st, 2007
“because the Wii is already priced so well, there’s less room for price cuts”, Sorry but that’s one of the stupidist things I’ve read on the internet. It should read – Because the Wii is already priced well it is in a perfect position to retaliate with it’s own price cuts if the other consoles decide to make cuts.
June 1st, 2007
The fad theory works for individual games, Mark, but not for systems. Why? 1 word: Installed user-base. (Yes, I know that is not one word, I just wasn’t sure whether it was 2 or 3 so I went with the joke.)
June 4th, 2007
How cares about hardcore gamers, if you can conquer new markets! Its about selling products, and selling products to old people, to people who have never played on consoles is an easy thing to do, if you can motivate them. And what’s easier than using the Wii Remote? In many cases you do not even have to know which button is for what.
Second. What’s with this HD hype? I saw some games on XBOX 360 + PS3 and they had old gameplays put in new shape. But it was boring. I don’t care about higher resolution.
Third. The price. It’s cheap like games should be, who pays several hundreds for some game? IT’S JUST A GAME, get a life, spend your money on your girlfried, it’s more fun.
October 1st, 2007
bezzle: You thing that was stupid? You should have kept reading. Like this that he post
“In the US, it’s the hardcore gamers who will decide who wins this round of the console war ”
THAT IS SO FUNNY!!!
I bet you Gameboy Tetrix, Nes Donkey Kong, Nes Super Mario Bros, GBC Pokemon have sold more than all three halo games combined.
Hardcore gamers buy games like WoW?? (War of Warcraft). I bet Nintendo Dogs or Brain Age have sold more than WoW
Hardcore Gamers don’t decide who wins. Casual Gamers do.
January 22nd, 2008
see, I had a NES back then, but my mom thought that ‘those stuff ruined the tv sets’ so she got rid of it, then I had a gameboy color.
now that I’m old enough I planned on getting a last-gen system I was all for the 360 until I got a ds. now I have a wii, you see I’m a lapsed gamer and as such I can tell I don’t want more graphic power but new ways for playing, there’s where the wii excels, the games (save for the graphics) are essentially the same thing they were back in the nes era.
February 3rd, 2008
It’s funny to stumble onto old articles dismissing the Wii. Maybe it’s time to re-evaluate the opinion expressed in this article? As you said: Take note, pride comes before a fall.
June 17th, 2008
Nick,
I’m sure this “fad” will be dying down any minute now… Over a year after this article was written, the Wii is still the top selling console by a large margin and difficult to find because demand is still outstripping supply.
I can’t help but wonder how well some of these “hardcore gamers” would do at Wii Fit.
June 18th, 2008
The Wii has already won the console war. Worldwide:
28 Mio Wii
19 Mio Xbox
13 Mio PS3
And the Wii sales are more than twice as hign as combined (xbox+ps3) sales and growing! 35 Mio would be possible at the end of this year. The publisher are already change their goal from xbox/ps3 to wii. After their big games, that they begun long before it was obvious that the Wii wins the “War”, are released, all the new big games are coming for the wii.