This is why the Wii will succeed and the PS3 will fail
By Danny Mendez
About a week ago I wrote an article detailing my theory regarding the Wii’s position in the console war. An industry insider just so happened to have read the article, posting a very insightful view of the console war in the comments section. His reasons as to why the Wii is more likely to succeed makes sense and may be the reason that the PS3 will fail in the end.
Before I continue, I personally believe the Wii is a failure waiting to happen. You can find out why if you click here. As to my previously mentioned theory, I believe Nintendo has carved it’s own category in video gaming, creating three categories: casual console gaming, traditional (hardcore) console gaming, and PC gaming. Before the Wii, video gaming was simply split in two: console gaming and PC gaming. You can read more about it if you click here.
Despite all that, Randy Wilson from Broken Attitude Studios believes the PS3 may fail Dreamcast style, and he may be right. The PS3 is losing support from 3rd party studios, which is vital to obtaining 3rd party exclusives, and it has PS3 console sales to blame. Past 3rd party exclusives that really helped the PS2 include the Grand Theft Auto and Final Fantasy series. I can’t even imagine the idea of “Playstation” without thinking of those two franchises, but Sony’s already losing that image as it’s already lost Grand Theft Auto IV as a PS3 only release.
“Sell-through is an important word to potential 3rd party developers like ourselves,” says Wilson, “We don’t factor in the stats of who owns both a Wii and a 360 or a PS3 and a Wii or a 360 and a PS3. We look at sell-through numbers. What this refers to is the actual number of consoles sold.”
The Nintendo Wii is outselling the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined, so developers are beginning to look to the Wii for future games.
“3rd party developers want to release their games on the system everyone has,” Wilson continues, “thus why the XB360 is doing fairly well with the amount of developers for the system. The Wii is gaining a lot of developers due to the sell-through amount. In the same terms, more and more developers are shying away from making PS3 games due to the rather poor sales. It is no new news that Sony lost some exclusivity rights to some of their key titles, and time will only tell what will happen in the next year.”
That’s not the PS3’s only problem. Sony may have made a mistake in incorporating Blu-ray technology, causing the console price to skyrocket.
“Ultimately, the overstated is the most obvious reason for Sony’s struggle: the Blu-Ray player. Had they not incorporated this device into the PS3, they could have sold the system for $300-$400 and dominated this generation. Yet, they insisted on forcing the new technology on everyone. The problem here is, many consumers still do not own HDTVs.”
Although consumers like to believe that the goal of the video game giants is them, Wilson points out that console manufacturers are competing for another audience.
“In the end, all 3 systems are competing with each other, because it all comes down to the developers. For conjecture, if SquareEnix starts focusing on Wii games, even if not their Final Fantasy series, they will have to allocate resources for that, which in turn delays games for the other systems from their studio. So, despite the differences in hardware, all 3 consoles are competing for one audience: the developers.”
In a way, the console war isn’t taking place at retail stores but instead the battlefield lies behind the scenes with console manufacturers fighting for developers. Without them, the consoles are nearly nothing. When you put it that way, Wilson, you may be right.
Broken Attitude Studios is currently a PC software development studio toying with the idea of console ports for next year. Broken attitude doesn’t believe in any of this fanboy BS, their motto being, “Shut up and play!”
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August 1st, 2007
[...] will play out differently, possibly with the downfall of the PS3. He has good reason to think so. Click here to ready why. var sc_project=2743373; var sc_invisible=0; var sc_partition=27; var sc_security=”06f39b4b”; [...]
August 1st, 2007
I can’t believe people are still predicting the Wii will fail. The Wii’s failure has been made impossible since it began outselling the PS3 6 to 1.
Wii units sold since Nov 2006: 9.27 million
PS3 units sold since Nov 2006: 4.48 million
Xbox 360 units sold since Nov 2005: 11.6 million
Try to know what you’re talking about before making such predictions.
Even developpers who made these predictions and refused to design games for the Wii are now scrambling to develop games. Everyone wants on board. Why would everyone want on board if the Wii was going to fail..hmmmm
August 1st, 2007
I said this many times before: if Sony had held off on releasing the PS3 and continued to focus on the PS2 for an extra year or so, they would still have been outselling the competition. That way the arrival of the PS3 would have been more welcomed during the sweet spot when everyone’s adopting HDTVs.
But not all is lost. The old PS2 is still selling pretty damn well along side the new consoles, and I’m sure it’ll be available to buy for at least four more years (the PS1 ran for over 11 years). Whether or not Sony can persuade most of these PS2 owners to upgrade to the PS3 is a tall order, but there are a LOT of Sony users out there.
For me, I’ll be waiting at least a year to see if the PS3 lives up to its hype, though I may also end up getting a Wii in the mean time (not fussed about Wii games, but the Virtual Console looks pretty damn tempting).
Vote PS2 - FOUR MORE YEARS ; )
August 1st, 2007
Nintendo is its own publisher, so it knows it can always produce quality games for its system even without other devs…they’re in a different situation
August 1st, 2007
A little off topic…. I just wanted to say that SCE gave up the exlusitivity of GTA IV for a brand new franchise that will only fit on a BLUE RAY DISK
August 1st, 2007
Danny Mandez,
Your write-up on the PS3 beating the Wii in the next 9 years is so ignorant I kept waiting for a punch-line.
Here’s your #1 flaw: “but what will be the console war situation in 2016?” Simple: Nintendo will have another console out by then. One with the specs it needs to support whatever amazing gameplay they come up with (virtual reality can’t be too far off). Meanwhile, Sony will be crying for attention to it’s 10-year-old PS3 system, which everyone will be sick of by then.
And consider this: as Sony fails to sell PS3s, developers start to write games for consoles that people actually own (no sense writing games for a system no one owns, right?). This is sending Sony for the spiral they’re currently in: buy our system even though there are no games, they cry, while that very lack of system sales is what’s driving developers away.
This also indicates that another of your points is completely wrong: all gamers care about is graphics. I’ve been playing since the days of NES, and I consider myself a hardcore gamer (having just built my own PC with 4GB of memory and an 8800GTX video card, I know what good graphics are). That said, I’d prefer play Heatseeker on Wii to ANY PS3 game I’ve tried or seen. It’s NOT graphics, and the people who still think it is need only look at how Wii is outselling PS3 by 2.5 to 1.
You are right though, that in 10 years the PS3’s price will be cheap enough to entice everyone. The problem is, it will be competing with the Xbox 720 and Wii II - which will be just as graphically powerful and, at least in the case of Wii II, be twice as much fun to play.
If you sincerely think Sony will outsell Nintendo from 2006 to 2016 (counting only PS3 vs. Wii & Wii II), I’d happily take that bet. Seriously, send me an email at bing11@gmail.com if you want to wager, cause with a 5 million console headstart I’m quite confident in my position.
Final note: this was originally posted in your other, less-logical “PS3 will succeed and the Wii will fail” post, but I felt it needed to be said here too, as you profess your “Wii is a failure” mindset here as well.
- “Bing”
August 1st, 2007
Isn’t it interesting, that all the hardcore Wii fans come out of the closet, even when someone is saying they are going to do well?
Heres some hard stats Wii fans:
http://www.nielsen.com/media/pr_070726.html
Fact is Wii IS NOT being played as much as people say it is. Wii gaming sales are also reasonably dubious, the statistics vary _wildly_ depending on where you get them from. And especially in Europe where it is well known in the retail sector that the PS3 is outselling all consoles - remembering this is a 500 million people market.
I think with only “guess work” stats to go on, its nothing more than fanboyism to claim much more than Wii is doing well but currently declining, PS3 is improving, and X360 sales are almost idle. With this in mind, take a look at the GameCube at the same lifetime - it was outselling PS2, and Xbox very early on (as N64 adopters picked them up).
Now looking at the Neilsen info where they state “The majority of Wii owners have wages above 100,000″ this is not the sign that the Wii is selling to cheap and fun audience, this is the Nintendo fan-wagon. Once this runs dry.. then watchout .. Nintendo is going to have a hard time getting longevity out of a box with no-HD, and specs that compare very poorly to most machines.
Added to all this, is the strength of PS2 sales. I notice no-one bothers to remember that the PS2 is still and actively sold platform by Sony. So when doing ANY numbers you should be including that audience:
PS2 120 million
Wii 9 million
PS3 4 million
X360 11 million
See how the next-gen machines simply pale into insignificance. Even the rates the Wii is selling at, will not get it a market even vaguely near the PS2 numbers.. since Sony are selling almost as many PS2’s as Wii!!!!
Then couple these numbers when PS2 owners start migrating to PS3, have a think of _long_ term growth for consoles. PS3 is the only one with a huge base they can change over slowly. The other two are reliant on new owners (which have been shown to be almost non-existant, thanks to the new surveys like Neilsens) and once they have saturated their fanbase, what then? Whats the point for developers if their fanbase is fixed at 15-20 million? When they could be targeting a potential 120 million?
Finally, one last very simple thing people can do. Go to GameStop. Count all the games that are due for release for each platform. Wii 69, PS3 102, X360 103 - I think that shows just what sort of development support the consoles have, because that is what you will be able to buy from.
August 1st, 2007
Every parent who cares about little Jimmy’s fatty problem should buy a Wii. After a fews weeks he will be burning off those puppy pounds.
Giving a child anything other console is basically child abuse, and parents should be flogged for it.
August 1st, 2007
I don’t think the PS3 and Xbox 360 will surpass the sales of the original Xbox. Why do I say that? Because most of the buyers of the Xbox were hardcore gamers just as most of the buyers of the 360 and PS3 are hardcore gamers. Sorry, soccer moms and other casual gamers are not going to fork over so much cash for something they can barely operate.
Someone posted that the PS2 owners will migrate to the PS3. Um, based on what reasoning? Many NES owners migrated to the Sega Genesis, and many Sega Genesis and SNES owners migrated to the Playstation 1 & 2. So what does that tell you? That most consumers are not loyal to a company. I don’t think many PS2 owners are going to buy a PS3 just because it says Sony on it. Consumers are not stupid.
I predict the Wii will end up being the best selling console ever. It is appealing to casual, hardcore and new gamers. As opposed to 360 and PS3 which only appeals to hardcore gamers.
To think the Wii hype will die out is utterly ridiculous. I guess fanboyism clouds one’s reasoning. The Wii is outselling the 360 and PS3 combined. Where I live people are still waiting outside of stores to pick up a Wii. It took me forever to find a Wii. Workers at Target, Gamespot, EB Games etc. have told me that has soon as they get a new batch of Wiis it sells out like crazy.
Just face it fanboys, the Wii is the future. It’s going to become the cultural icon of video games. Thanks to Nintendo, they have brought us one step closer to virtual reality.
August 1st, 2007
Nintendo is its proper one to publisher, as soon as knows that it always can produce games of the quality for its same system without others devs… that they are in a different situation
http://playtops3.blogspot.com
August 2nd, 2007
for the last time, the dreamcast was an odity in the gaming world as far as to why it failed, what was it, no 3rd party support? no good games? too exspensive? NO TO ALL OF THE ABOVE
the sole reason that the DC failed was the GCD, the format they choosed to put games on, i remember like it was yesturday, one month after that system came out, ppl were downloading and burning the games for free, and sega was powerless to stop it. so the ps3 will not share that fate, it will def. be in 3rd place this gen, but certaintly not fail, there are just too many exclusives coming down the pipeline and lots of support
remember, sega made game consoles and games, thats all, when they lost, they really lost.
sony makes games, consoles, tv’s, stereos, mp3 players, movies, tv shows, music, etc they have much more capital and thus can afford a loss in the gaming division, sega couldn’t and as such went belly up, just look at sony’s recent earning report, they took a loss in the gaming sector, but overall doubled profit from the previous year
August 3rd, 2007
I own a 360 and i love it.Probably going to get a Wii cause my woman lovs it.Ps3 is not in the future becuase it would just be replicating the 360,Price(selling my xbox 1’s and games i overplayed on ebay payed for my 360),and the xbox has more games.
Nintendo got it right,make great games and your system will fly.Sony could learn alot from that.They have always had a huge % of garbage games.Who cares if you have 3000 games if 2950 of the are stupid beyond repair.
September 30th, 2007
This is a counter argument against Clover.
1) This is not to offend but Europe isn’t that important in console wars; North America and Japan are bigger markets even if there are less people. Also, the Wii has outsold the PS3 so far in Europe so what are you talking about? Did you even check that for instance, in France, the Wii has outsold PS3 7-1 or in Britain, more than 4-1. The Wii is winning in Italy and Spain as well. So what do you mean exactly by ” well known in the retail sector that the PS3 is outselling all consoles”? That’s just a lie.
2) The Wii has outsold the PS2 every month since its lauch, almost always by at least 2:1
3) The PS2 is last generation. Game sales are slowing. If Sony clings to the past it will never succeed with PS3.
4) “With this in mind, take a look at the GameCube at the same lifetime - it was outselling PS2, and Xbox very early on (as N64 adopters picked them up).” This is completely false. The Gamecube released a year after the PS2 and never surpassed its total sales.
5) There is no section called in development at gamestop. If you are referring to “coming soon” then you are being silly. The games list is not accurate at best. Project Hammer has a release date after all! The game is scrapped but apparently it releases in February. You can’t use these figures for arguments.
6) And oh PS, your link is a dud.
June 30th, 2008
i have a ps3 and a ps2 and a GBA and i still use them. i have about 6 game boy games 3 ps3 games
about 20 ps1 games and about 35 ps2 games and
i’m getting a new psp (first one ended up in the wash by mistake) with about 10 games. so far the ps3 line-up is this motorstorm2, resistance2, MGS4, killzone2, wipeout ps3, uncharted2, GT5, bioshock1 and 2, crysis1.5,bad company, tony hawks, star wars, skate2, GTA4, little big planet, wipeoutHD, god of war3, getaway3 and eight days(when they go back to them later), sonic, tomb raider8, resident evil5, ratchet and clank
andpixel junk eden so there is plenty of games
out for ps3 that target diffrent people means more sales and more 3rd party excusives and more fans more price drops and cheaper games
with to come in the following years so in 3 years ps3 will have sold more then the Wii and by then
the Wii HD will come outand cost a £150 mores
at retail and when wii 3 comes out the PS4 will
be out costing £365 or £385 and i’ll be making my
own console by then. bye……………..