10 year lifespans for Xbox 360 and PS3? Strategy to beat Wii?
By Dave Parrack
Consoles have until now had a 4 to 6 year lifespan, and how long they have lasted before being superseded by a successor has depended on hardware sales, and what competitors are up to. This generation however, looks to be different, with both Sony and Microsoft already claiming their current consoles will last far longer.
The Xbox 360 was launched just four years after the launch of the original Xbox, and the PS3 six years after the PS2 made its début. This time both companies seem to be settling in for the long haul, and have a strategy in place which means their consoles are going to be around for a lot longer than that.
At the 2006 DICE summit, recently held in Las Vegas, Microsoft studios’ corporate vice president Shane Kim spoke to New York Times reporter Seth Schiesel about plans for the future. Via Games Industry.biz:
“Our belief is that the Xbox 360 will have a very long life cycle. It is much different than the original Xbox. For strategic reasons, we launched the 360 four years after original.”
A very long life cycle to me would intimate more than just the five or six years being touted around as the probable life span of the 360. So although he didn’t mention a definite time-scale, if the Xbox 360 is is going to be much different than the original Xbox, I think Microsoft must be looking at eight year upwards.
Last year, Sony president Jack Tretton answered critics of the PS3 and its poor early sales by claiming that the console is ahead of the market. He then insisted that “we’re into this for the next 10 years and beyond.” 10 years may be pushing it, but it’s clear Sony are in for the long haul with the PS3.
So are we due for the longest lasting console generation ever, with the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii all sticking around for a lot longer than their predecessors? Ah, hang on a minute, the Wii, I was forgetting about the little white console from Nintendo. There’s no way that’s still going to be here in five years, let alone ten.
Which makes Sony and Microsoft’s strategy seem very strange. Technology makes massive leaps every two or three years in this day and age, and to put out some hardware in the hopes it’ll still be current and state of the art in ten years time is just madness.
The PS3 and Xbox 360 are very impressive pieces of gaming hardware, but in a decade’s time, playing one of them will be like using a PS1, or Dreamcast now. It’s not going to work.
Nintendo have eschewed graphics and processing power and instead gone for innovation with the Wii. They have also put out an affordable but profit making machine which they could easily update in 3 years time, with an improved motion control system.
So which strategy will win in the long run? And by the time we see a PS4 or Xbox 720 (or whatever), will we be on Wii 2, or Wii 3?
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February 10th, 2008
I find it hard to believe that both systems will be the lead system for both companies in 10 years time. As much as I like the idea of not having to buy another console for 10 years, I doubt that would happen.
February 10th, 2008
Well, the PS2 is still selling like hotcakes worldwide, and games are still being developed for the thing. The PS2 is still in its cycle.
February 10th, 2008
nVIDIA has been developing RSX2 since 2006.
SCEI has been recruiting PS3 emulation engineers for PS4(Confirmed by SCEI’s job postings). PS4 spec has been set in stone.
Since PS3 is a failure rejected by 3rd party developers, it will have a 4 -year life cycle and be replaced by PS4 by the end of 2010 at the latest.
February 10th, 2008
i hate this site a lot
its so anti-wii
PS3 SUCKS
xbox 360 is a little less than ok
February 10th, 2008
Well yeah, but the PS2 isn’t the ‘lead’ system for Sony anymore, even though it is still selling well.
February 10th, 2008
When the Wii hits 40 million sold units, which could happen in the middle of next year, it would be quite a blow if Nintendo released a 100% backward compatible Wii 2. Improved controller (accuracy etc…), HD included, a dual or quad processor. Nintendo wouldn’t even have to push the technology envelope at that stage to produce something with similar technical specs to the PS3 or XBox 360.
Probably won’t happen though!
February 10th, 2008
Funny thing is some 360 only last for 2 weeks. WTF?
Well I’m pissed because my 360 broke “again!” what can you say to that shane?
Shane Kim:
I think our system suck so bad that it’s made in china for cheap labor.
I guess MS does really suck they can’t even make their own warehouse the only thing i like about MS is the windows VISTA and direct X drive for gaming while everything they make sucks.
Oh Hey Bill Gates ,,!,,
February 10th, 2008
Well soon the PS3 will have a remote very similar to what the wiimote can do but better
The Darwin
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/02/wiimote-challen.html
So that will make the Wii, not obsolete but dam close, thanks Nintendo, you always set the standard for others to copy.
February 10th, 2008
Umm, once again, the information in this message has been misconstrude.
Sony has maintained a 10 year life cycle since day one. The PSX stayed on the mainstage for 6 years before the release of the PS2, it continued to be supported for another 3-4 years, hence the 10 year plan. The same is holding true today. The PS2 had been running 6 years strong when the PS3 was released. As you can see, the PS2 is still being developed for and remains a big player in the gaming world.
The 10 year plan does not mean that it will be the only offering in that period of time, just that they will continue support for it for that time.
As for Microsoft, it is a different story. The Xbox 360 was the successor the Xbox, but once it was released, Microsoft dropped it without a second thought not 6 months after the release of the 360. Only scarce 3rd party games could be found on the system.
To say that Microsoft isn’t planning the same thing is ridiculous. With the number of problems that have arose and continue to remain relevent in the console, it is rumored that MS will drop the 360 by end of 2009 and start again with what should have been released the first time, a working game console.
February 10th, 2008
I haven’t seen an XBOX 360 last 12 months let alone five years. I’m on my second.
February 10th, 2008
steriotyp :
if what they release in 2009 actually work
the xbox 360 is already going down, declining sales, no games, declining sales, have reached their peak lifetime, declining sales, cant resolve hardware problems, declining sales…
did i mention the xbox 360 sales are declining?
February 11th, 2008
Yes, the PS3 will last ten years. The 360, not very likely. It uses DVD and that will cause it to die early. If it used HD DVD instead it could have lasted longer.
I guess if Microsoft wants they could release Xbox 360.5 and use a Blu-ray drive. That could help it last. Would gamers buy it? Maybe people not wanting to upgrade to a new console would.
February 11th, 2008
jaime,
Did you just say that the 360 has no games? Wow. You could work at Sony Defense Force if you wanted to! haha
February 11th, 2008
Once again I am forced to share some thought in this forum! Please, Please..Everyone!! Hard media is done!! No more DVD’s, HDDVD’s, and Blu-Ray. Flash Media is where its at. Thats where the technology is going. Good ole cheap hard drives. Look at the fat 5GB download with DMC 4 on the PS3 with Blu-Ray! I thought BLU-Ray was the storage medium? The hard drive is faster!! HAHAHA! Sony has just stopped selling the 80 gb system and will replace it with a 120gb hard drive system like the 360. Downloading is catching steam and Microsoft is already there. Online Play is 360’s claim to fame. They will ride this wave til 2012 or longer with the same box and bigger hard drive. They will make the CPU and graphics card smaller and more efficient. Everyone knows that the 360 has a superb ATI graphics card and Samsung memory. You cannot keep the graphics card cool enough to keep them from dying. So stop all the whining and crying about the 360 dying and keep the unit as cool as possible until Microsoft fixes the problem. Anybody played Xbox 360 COD4 online……Wayyyyyyyyy cool man!
February 11th, 2008
@programmer,
“The PS3 is a failure rejected by third-party developers”???????
Please you can’t be that naive, the PS3 was in its first year for crying out loud. Using new tech that no one was familiar with. A one year install base of 10+mil isn’t something you ignore.
And this ten year thing is BS. It just means that they will stay in this gen exclusively for much longer than they did the last. Expect a 7-8 year cycle for them before there next consoles are launched.
February 11th, 2008
when they said they were going to support their consoles for ten years they did not mean that after 10 years then they would release their next consoles what they meant is after 5 to 6 years when they release their next gen consoles they would still support their current gen consoles (that is what the 10 year lifespan is for) .
February 11th, 2008
I wished there was a game i like to buy for my wii, the thing has been sitting there collecting dust for months.
February 11th, 2008
Wii is probably collecting dust because you live in a very dusty area. The 2 Playstation had a big cycle due to success but what happens with PS3 which after 1 year is having difficulties in sales and support? XBox360 had its moments but it does decline on sales, Europe mainly.
Wii may not have HD DVD or Blue Ray but it has innovation, successful strategy and enormous sales and a shocking wide demographic not presented in such scale in the past. I wonder how the author of the article missed pointing these.
February 11th, 2008
Xbox 360 has nothing just over hyped crap only FPS nothing else Live lags like hell the system dies all the time had a 15 years old dvd drive doesn’t even include hdd in all xbox 360 no web browser which on ps3 is really useful Xbox 360 has no card reader omg is just empty. PS3 will last ten or more years xbox cant last this year no good games.
February 11th, 2008
There is no way the 360 can last for another 8 years. With the DVD drive, it’s already creaking at the seams.
The other factor of course, is the 360’s ease to develop for. This upside is games look better sooner, the downside is that the system reaches it’s limit quicker, it’s already looking like current games are close to reaching what the 360 is capable of, with no more major jumps in the next 8 years. The Playstation 3 (like the PS1 and PS2 before it), is harder to develop for, and the way the console improves is more steady. Developers are stating current games as using about 20% of it’s power. The next 8 years will see great things on PS3 platform, I suspect the 360 to fall away very quickly, and perhaps be replaced with a updated model with Blu-ray, and HDD as standard.
February 11th, 2008
If the ps3 only has a 4 year lifespan Sony will fail as a company. They spent tons of money in R&D and even more trying to sell the system (taking a loss for every system sold). They are finally hoping to turn this trend around this year and start making money off the console. If they’re forced to start the whole cycle up with an even more powerful machine in 3 years, the company will be doomed. I have no reason to think Sony’s system can’t last 8 years tho, they have tons of functionality which they haven’t even begun to use yet.
The 360 will be able to last a while as well, they may need to come out with little upgrades to the machine, but overall it can last.
The wii is an AMAZING system, but it is destined to need a remake in 3-4 years. The assumption with the Wii was that few people had HD TVs. This will no longer be the case in a few years, especially when countries are trying to go all digital in the next few years. While graphics clearly don’t make the game, in 4 years CPUs and graphic cards to support HD will be dirt cheap and Nintendo will have tons of cash stored up from the success of the Wii and DS which have been making them money all along. Time to upgrade the capabilities of motion controls and future proof their graphical abilities.
February 11th, 2008
RROD has been solved people!! Stop bitchin’ about it!!
February 11th, 2008
@pap
It’s going to take more than an “improved Wiimote” to make the Wii “close to obsolete.” Sony, as it appears (but I could be wrong) is stubborn about trying to reach children, and Microsoft, (I could be wrong again) even though it’s trying, is not doing a good job.
Always remember that the average customer wants something cheap and good enough–not THE BEST and most expensive. The Darwin controller in the website you listed is, or so they claim, better than the Wiimote, but the Wiimote is good enough, and cheap.
February 11th, 2008
@ Gamer
Thank you! Your comments about the Wii’s future sums up exactly how I feel. The fact is, Nintendo is not full of slouches, speaking from a business perspective. They are planning to update their system on a much faster timescale than the other two, but the beauty of their approach is that it will afford them with AMAZING tech at a FRACTION of the price.
February 11th, 2008
I can’t even imagine owning the same computer 10 years from now. I’ll feel even more sorry for you hardcore Sony and Microsoft console fans if this turns out to be true.
In ten years my cell phone will be able to kick your PS3’s ass.
February 11th, 2008
@Tonneke
RROD SOLVED??? WHAT PLANET DO YOU LIVE ON MARS THE RROD HASN’T BEEN SOLVED ALL MICROSOFT HAS DONE IS REALEASE A LITTLE CARD THAT IS ONLY IN 2% OF ALL MICROSOFT 360′S BIT GUESS WHAT THEY STILL FAIL THEY JUST FAIL LATER THEN NORMAL SO BASICALLY MICROSOFT HAS DONE NOTHING BUT STICK THIER THUMB UP THEIR ASS AND ACT LIKE EVERY THING IS GOING OKAY
February 11th, 2008
The next generation Xbox / 3rd-gen Xbox
(not counting upcoming cheaper revisions and possible future incarnations of Xbox 360 with more features) will probably be out in 2011 or 2012. Microsoft wants a 6 or 7 year life for Xbox 360 before the next-gen Xbox comes out. 2010 is somewhat possible, that would give Xbox 360 a 5 year lifespan, but 2011 is much more probable. 2012 is the latest.
PS4 won’t be out in 2010. No way. Yet, there is also NO WAY PS3 will be around 10 years before PS4 comes out. If the 10 year PS3 life cycle before next-gen PS4 was true, that would mean PS4 is not coming until 2016. THAT’S Impossible, especially given PS3 is LAST PLACE in total worldwide sales. Even if PS3 starts doing somewhat better (it has to), it will probably never overcome Xbox 360 and most definitely not Wii.
PS3 will be at best, a barely break-even console. It probably won’t make a profit for Sony. PS4 will replace it sometime between 2011 and 2013.
2011 is 5 years after PS3, 2013 is 7 years after PS3.
Also, I expect the next-gen Wii by 2010 or at the latest 2011. While it’s the most successful console right now, it doesn’t have the ability to last long because of the faster Gamecube-based chipset it uses.
February 12th, 2008
(This is directed at all the downloading comments)
Physical media isn’t going anywhere for a long time. If ever. If we move to flash based systems, that’s fine, but it’s still a physical medium. The next systems will still be disc based (first) and also have the flash set-ups like the PS3.
I don’t know why people are obsessing about downloads. Games will be offered as downloads in the future, but they will also still be sold in stores, and in physical medium.
The Blu Ray move is more about DMCA than what’s best served as a gaming platform. But I agree that BR is needed to prevent piracy (until it is cracked and games can be copied, and played). The gaming industry is plagued with piracy, and I feel BR media is the best defense against it.
February 12th, 2008
I doubt a 10 year lifespan on the 360. Extremely high failure rate making too many last only months. A standard DVD player built in instead of next gen media reader/player. No internal wi-fi built in (consumers want wireless). MS is going to be asking their consumers to purchase some new hardware in 1.5-2 years in order to keep up with Sony. Hopefully MS does it correctly this time and doesnt screw 33% of their consumers (MS did step up big time with the extended warranty, although this should never have been necessary). PS3 maybe could go for a 10 year stretch but even with all of the options in that hardware, technology changes rapidly these days.
February 13th, 2008
Anyone who think Wii won’t be around in five years is a moron, NES was around 20 years, and was a generation behind at launch, Wii will be around in 10, probably even 15 years
February 16th, 2008
I have both a Xbox 360 and a PS3. My Xbox 360 is more fun than the PS3. The PS3 graphics are better than Xbox 360’s. The exclusives that will come out for PS3 will be better than the ones on Xbox 360. Halo 3, Gears of War, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Deadrising, Crackdown, Forza and PGR are all great games. In the future they won’t compare to the games on PS3: Resistance: Fall of Man, Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune, Haze, Metal Gear Solid 4, Killzone 2, Motorstorm, Gran Turismo 5, Unreal Tournament 3, Resistance 2 and many more. For Assasin’s Creed the Xbox 360 used 87% of the DVD disc. The PS3 used about a quarter of their Blu-Ray disc space. The only way Xbox 360 can last another 5 years is if they upgrade their disc format to HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. I don’t see that happening. If you look into the future the PS3 will be better than the Xbox 360. The online will get better, games will get better, graphics and hardware will all be better than the Xbox 360. The Xbox 360 will last 2-5 years at the most. PS3 will last 4-8 years in my opinion. I mean they will last as the best system for the respectful companies. I don’t mean they will be the lesser system and still being developed for.
February 21st, 2008
as a previous owner of a 360 (which is now dead from E74 - not covered by ‘free repair’ by MS so effectively £300 down the drain), I can only pray for the death of the 360 asap. It’s still conning consumings with it’s unreliability, masked by currently having the best line up of games from the 3 consoles.
However those games mean little if you can’t reliably collect/buy them and know they will play a year or two from now.
360 had it all, it could have ruled the world but something had to give and the RROD and E74 errors will be remembered for generations and probably put consumers off ever buying another MS console (they have for me).
And yes the lack of built in wifi is a joke, even the first gen nintendo DS could manage it in a tiny/cheap package. Money grabbing MS are like a goverment that taxes you on everything, in this case online and essential accessories.
Sure the games are (were) great up til 2008 but mostly FPS games which frankly are always better on a good PC (play crysis on very high then find me one console game that comes close to the exhiliration/immersion of that game!) or at least with m/kbd control.
Wii *IS* absolutely underpowered, not in a ‘man I want me some sweet gfx - where are they’ way but the fact that for HDTV owners like me it just doesn’t cut it, it looks WORSE than my gamecube did on an SD tv in comparision because the HDTV shows up the lack of resolution. I love the idea of the wii and think it’s a very nice piece of kit but frankly it’s far too underwhelming in both games for serious gamers and tech. I own a gamecube and I feel like i’ve played all the good nintedo stuff already.
That leaves PS3 - some doubts about it’s actual graphical prowess (compared to the 360 which as most people know does have a slightly superior GPU and RAM sub system). However the hardware is very nice, the BluRay is now a tasty valid bonus (thanks to it ‘winning’ the HD war) and some of the exlusives are very tempting. All it needs now is MORE quality games, a price drop and dual shock 3s packed in as standard.
With ps3 it is going to take a year more or so to iron out the frame rate problems etc but they should get there, it won’t be as easy as on 360 but I will take reliable over ’slightly faster’ anyday.
ALso factor in that ‘most’ the 360 ‘exclusives’ are ending up PC (8800gtx here) and I see less and less reasons to rebuy a 360.
My 360 is now just a dead motherboard in a box, the rest sold off to recoup some of my expenditure, I will never forgive MS/XBOX for what they did to me and thousands (eventually millions) of customers. Even if you do get a fix/refurb, the hassle of doing that and the constant worry of when the 360 is next going to die is just not on, not for the price it cost.
Wise people originally bought 360 and ignored Sony. Wise people these days stay away from 360 knowing that reliability and not being ripped off is more important than a few more FPS games to choose from.
March 15th, 2008
im fucking fed of yu fucking sony fans thinking thay u sell games so kiss my ass bitch