PS3 to overtake Wii by 2011 - According to iSuppli forecast
By Dave Parrack
There was I thinking that this generation console war had all but been sewn up by Nintendo, with the Wii selling in such huge quantities each month that it could never hope to be caught by the PS3 or Xbox 360, but it seems not, at least if you pay any attention to what market research firms say.
What’s the situation at the moment? Well, due to being out longer than its rivals, Microsoft and the Xbox 360 hold the number one spot for the biggest installed user base, but the Wii is quickly catching up. The PS3 has started its life badly, but is now finally starting to come good, and sell more than just a few consoles to the die hard early adopters.
To know what’s going to happen next, and look to the future, you need one of two things: a crystal ball, and the powers of a psychic; or a market research firm with flow charts, graphs, and sales figures coming out of their asses. On this occasion, we have the latter of the two, although maybe the former would be more believable.
According to Reuters, iSuppli has recently compiled a three year market forecast, which shows the console market is going to shift yet again. Firstly, in a move which will surprise no-one, the Wii will overtake the Xbox 360 as the overall market leader.
By the end of 2008, iSuppli predict the Wii to have sold 30.2 million units, compared to 25.7 million projected sales for the Xbox 360. Okay, I’m with them so far, this all seems perfectly logical.
Sales are then further projected right up until 2011, where in a complete role reversal to the present day, the Playstation 3 becomes head honcho. By then the PS3 is expected to have achieved an installed base of 38.4 million units, just overtaking the Wii on 37.7 million.
Three year forecasts are very speculative to put it bluntly, although it’s certainly possible that this sales pattern could emerge as the truth. Although, by 2011, I’m not sure if Nintendo will really be that bothered, as Wii 2 will likely be close to release.
The real loser of course will be Microsoft, as from a good start, sales have dropped, and it looks more than likely the Xbox 360 will end up as the loser of this particular generation, despite having some very loyal, and vocal fans behind it.
Now for the psychic with a crystal ball, or me: I think come 2011, we’ll see a very confident Nintendo preparing to release its new and improved Wii 2, and Microsoft having its hand forced to bring out a new console ahead of schedule too. The PS3 meanwhile could pay Sony back all the investment and troubles it has cost, and spend two or three years shifting in huge numbers while its successor is prepared.
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Tips N4G
February 16th, 2008
wii already has a higher user base than xbox 360
you dipshit and ps3 will overtake 360 in 2008 with these exclusive games
1.Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
2. killzone 2
3.haze
4. little big planet
5.Final Fantasy XIII
6.Final Fantasy Versus XIII
7.Gran Turismo 5
8.Tekken 6
9.WipeOut HD
10. resistance 2
11.infamous
12. wardevil
13. socom u.s navy seals: confrontation
14. white knight chronicles
15. (possibly may be delayed untill 2009) God of war 3
16. the getaway 3
and blu-ray winning the hi-def war. and i dont care what market researchres say by 2011 ps3 will be first xbox 360 at a close second and wii in a distant last place. people will realise the graphics are shit the control system is boring and there are hardly any serious games
February 16th, 2008
I completely agree with this post. I think the PS3 will force the next console from MS.
I think the Wii 2 will certainly be something to look forward too.
February 16th, 2008
1) The above post is correct. The article here is wrong. The Wii does already have a higher userbase than Xbox 360.
2) I don’t think it’s at all clear that PS3 will overtake X360. It’s possible, since it has some big big upcoming games, but by no means clearly going to happen. There’s a lot of buildup that PS3 has to overcome before that point.
February 20th, 2008
I agree. PS3 will definitely take the Xbox over this year and has already begun to do so. Also, they did just win the war of the high-def dvds. Even with the attempt of Microsoft to come out with a bluray player for their Xbox, PS3 will still pull ahead.