U.S. console sales predictions - Xbox 360 beats PS3, Wii way ahead
By Dave Parrack
While the official NPD data for sales in the U.S. isn’t released until Thursday, the analysts have come out early as usual and given their predictions for how consoles sales will stack up. There are two intriguing twists this month, with the Xbox 360 expected to leapfrog the PS3, and the Wii showing the first signs of a possible sales decline.
Although these predicted figures shouldn’t be taken as anything approaching official, with the soon to be released NPD data the only true source, the predictions from analysts can show us how the hardware market seems to be stacking up. And if they get it wrong, a good laugh in to the bargain.
All the analysts seem to be agreeing on a few broad points: sales are up year on year, the Wii has matched the joint sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360 yet again, the Xbox 360 has beaten the PS3.
Although the percentages are somewhat different, Michael Pachter, Jesse Divnich, and Colin Sebastian all agree that industry sales (both hardware and games) are up on this time last year. It’ll be somewhere between a 30-45% increase on July 2007 although sales are slightly down on last month.
The DS is expected to top the hardware sales chart yet again, with the Wii leading the way for home consoles. Basically Nintendo is raking it in. Again the numbers differ between predictions, but the Wii is expected to have sold more units than the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 put together.
What’s sure to upset a few people is that the Xbox 360 looks likely to have beaten the PS3 for the month of July. According to GI.biz, Pachter has the numbers at 275,000 for the Xbox and 250,000 for the PS3. Divnich gives the Microsoft console an even bigger margin of victory with 325,488 to 275,444. Either way, the Xbox has climbed out of last place and relegated the PS3. This is probably due to the price cut of the 20Gb Xbox 360 announced just before E3.
The other interesting thing about these predictions is that they show what might possibly be the start of a gradual weakening in Wii sales. Sure, it’s still kicking ass but sales are expected to drop for the fourth month in a row, as can be seen on the EEDAR graph published at Kotaku. Could this be the chink in Nintendo’s armour that Sony and Microsoft have been waiting for? Or is it just because there are still Wii shortages being reported in the States?
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August 12th, 2008
‘What’s sure to upset a few people is that the Xbox 360 looks likely to have beaten the PS3 for the month of July. ‘
It hasn’t upset me at all!
August 12th, 2008
Patcher is a hack.
August 12th, 2008
SW,
Yeah, but if everyone is agreeing, we’ll have to assume he’s most likely correct this time. At least until Thursday. Price cuts always come hand-in-hand with a sales surge, so it’s not like it would be surprising.
-Arvis
August 12th, 2008
wow…i could’ve swore the ps3 fanboys said mgs4 and gta would cause gamers to lose their minds in a buying frenzy of ps3…
i guess they were wrong…again…
oh well…pachter could be wrong… again..
August 12th, 2008
I love your comment Dave: “Although these predicted figures shouldn’t be taken as anything approaching official, with the soon to be released NPD data the only true source . . .”
Yet a title of your own article from April:
“PS3 beats Xbox 360 in monthly sales again”
But hey, look at the very first line of your article: “The official NPD data for March is due out later this week.”
And note how the PS3 article is written as fact, yet the Xbox winning article clearly states “predictions.”
Either you’ve learned something, or you are a journalistic hack with no integrity. I’m going to have to go with the latter.
What’s so disgusting about your obvious prostitution Dave is that I’ll bet Sony isn’t even paying you anything . . . what kind of dumb person does what you do for no money?
Does blorge.com require you slant all stories to aid in the sinking PS3?
My favorite is that the Xbox ended up winning March NPD numbers by 5,000 units . . .
Did we see a retraction of your story? NO. Did we see any journalistic integrity at all?
NO.
I think I’m giving your entire web domain too much credit to ever call anyone who writes for it a journalist.
FYI dave - I don’t click your advertisements. You’re not getting any money from me.
August 12th, 2008
Uhh Jonny boy, this is a blog not the times. Asking for journalistic integrity here is like trying to find olympians at a Pee Wee soccer game
August 12th, 2008
well said, jonathan. well said, indeed…
August 12th, 2008
Gotta love xbots. An article about the 360 beating the PS3 and yet they have to find one sentence, pick it apart, and give Dave hell about him favoring the PS3. You people are sad. If these numbers are correct just go ahead and gloat, that would be much better than reading how everyone is against the 360, I think we are all tired of hearing it. Be happy with the sales if that’s what gets you off!
August 12th, 2008
@ Jonathan……why dont you ever stop being a baby?….why cant you just read the damn article?…its not your article…..there can be a huge amount of reasons why he wrote an article on this…your comments are worthless and make you look dumber everytime…..honestly i think kev has better self control, makes better comments, and knows way more than you
August 12th, 2008
Jonathan, you think this article is slanted towards the PS3? Have you taken your pills lately?
August 12th, 2008
Matt,
You can’t blast Jonathan for commenting on an article by you, yourself commenting on an article or it’s comments.
It’s like Fat Albert telling Oprah she’s fat.
I guess that makes you Fat Albert.
Right on Jon,
August 12th, 2008
Kev MGS4 and GTA4 where out a while ago now
August 12th, 2008
Yes it’s slanted toward the PS3 because it does not contain the sentence “for no reason whatsoever however, the PS3 is scheduled to drop 33% in sales month over month.”
The big story this month is - why the decrease to PS3? MGS4 just got the rest of your die hards is what it looks like . . .
That foretells there might be another drop in PS3 sales next month . . .
And “this article” - nice deflect. No not necessarily this article - except for the reason above . . but the other 10 you wrote this week, yes those.
And Dave - stop that. Do not call these articles.
August 12th, 2008
@Wylie
I think that was a perfect response.
@DaveP, I found the article to be entertaining. The comments this round, not so entertaining.
August 12th, 2008
Jonathan needs a chill pill
He’s going to need an even bigger one when the PS3 sales soar through with the release of the new 80Gb PS3 at $399 and the availability back to normal (while the clearance $299 Xbox will be out).
This being said, I find the predictions weird.
Amazon had the 80Gb $499 PS3 (until they ran out of stock yesterday that is) far far outselling the $299 Xbox (even the Wii at times). Oh well, we’ll see. One month of sales -in summer- don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things
August 12th, 2008
@Jonathan
“Yes it’s slanted toward the PS3″
“And “this article” - nice deflect. No not necessarily this article -”
Which is it? Nothing like being a hypocrite in one post!
“The big story this month is - why the decrease to PS3? MGS4 just got the rest of your die hards is what it looks like . . .
“That foretells there might be another drop in PS3 sales next month . .”
Now your an analysts? or should I drop the lysts and just call you anal?
August 12th, 2008
We’re all analysts Wylie . . . Dave doesn’t have a monopoly on thinking.
And as an analyst Wylie . . . it doesn’t look good for the PS3 . . .
let’s lYst things:
1. No upcoming price cut to the PS3 - “focused on profitability now, not market share.”
2. Besides for Ps3 home - a bad copy of the Xbox acheivement system - and besides for that create your own world game . . . not sure what that’s all about, looks kind of gay. . . The PS3 has no system sellers slated to come out this holiday period. That’s bad.
3. Xbox has a rumored $100 price cut, taking it to $199 . . . That’s bad.
4. Netflix partnership exclusively with Microsoft.
I’m really not sure what the PS3 has going for it . . . BD seems more like an anchor than a selling point.
August 12th, 2008
That rant blew me away. Well done.
August 12th, 2008
The fact that Xbox has lost to Wii has no bearing to you. With PS3 gaining ground on Xbox, it would appear it angers you?
Obviously you appear to like Xbox. It’s ok…
In the main scheme of life whoever wins or loses will not change your life. Are you to spend the rest of your life telling your friends and family I told you so?
Let me be the first to tell you this - they are all winning!
Sometimes you just need to step off the ride to see where you are or what you stand to gain.
August 12th, 2008
Yhats awsome from open your eyes. Read above kev and johnathan it can change your life!!!!!
August 12th, 2008
I thought that by gaining ground you are meant to continually win each month…..
August 12th, 2008
Wasn’t the PS3 short in stock this month? And besides, how many times has the 360 outsold the ps3 this year so far? Only once to my mind. Event he ps2 outsold the 360 this year!
August 12th, 2008
jonny boi, lmao
what the ps3 has coming? certainly more then the xbox has comin, gears 2? wow… thats a huge lineup of games
August 12th, 2008
certainly you havent been keeping up with the lineup that sony has comin out this holiday
August 12th, 2008
wait . . . Gears 2 and Final Fantasy 13!!!
BOOOOOO YEAAAAHH!!!!!!
IN YOUR FACE!
August 13th, 2008
Final Fantasy Versus… BOOOO YEEAAAAHH…. you get the facial!
August 13th, 2008
You never know man, final fantasy versus may come to xbox, they may announce it in the end like they did with finaly fantasy 13
August 13th, 2008
Final Fantasy Versus!!! Cool can’t wait for it to be released in 2012.
August 13th, 2008
yeh jono, we get both FF so I do believe that is actually quite in your face
and seriously, your little list of ‘PS3-oh-noes’ is crap. Number 2 makes no sense at all, do you not read about games? Number 4, well now your just picking at straws mate.
August 13th, 2008
I know a lot lot LOT of Wii and Nintendo fanboys… and many of them are realizing the drought by the Wii and are deciding to move on.
But BUT - every … single… one of them is moving on to the 360, and I’m 100% sure, that if Nintendo fanboys crack - is for MS and not Sony. They already don’t care about graphics/bluray, 360 is cheaper, and has more of a CURRENT game catalog.
This is my observation at least, I suggested the PS3 to them, but they weren’t having it at ALL. Only way I could break them was the 360.
August 13th, 2008
Sorry Johny boy, Netflix is not exclusive to the 360. Sure it won’t come to PS3 but there are other ways to use it. And the price cut for the 360, isn’t that just for the Arcade? No hardrive is there. Good luck to those who buy it and try to use Netflix!
August 13th, 2008
Let’s face it. The Wii has already kicked ass, whether we like it or not. It’s just a battle for second place.
PS3 will ultimately come second with its Blu-Ray capability, with Xbox 360 in third. These last two won’t be failures for their companies.
And Nintendo will have released another console in 2011 to spark a big ‘buzz’ and will either follow in the footsteps of the DS and Wii or go downhill like the Gamecube. By then the supercessor to the DS will have come out and will be kicking ass, purely because Nintendo handhelds seem to sell whatever they do just because they have the Nintendo branding on them.
But for now, Nintendo’s won the current war hands down. On the handheld and home console front. And the PS3 and 360 are just slogging it out for second.
August 13th, 2008
@Arvis,
I was just saying patcher is a hack!
I don’t really care if he’s right or wrong. Suppose I could’ve been a shade more clear with that!
August 13th, 2008
Sorry Wylie . . . the rumor has it accross all SKUs.
As for the ARcade not being able to do netflix . . what gives you that idea? 100% wrong.
Streamed movies only need a 5-10MB buffer . . . therefore the flash drive the system comes with is ample.
August 13th, 2008
BTW Akers . . .
The Money is made on sales of games, not consoles.
Therefore the 1.2 games the average Wii owner has, is no match compared to the 7.7 games the average Xbox owner has. Not only that, but MS is probably making money on each Xbox as well.
The Wii’s hit a huge market . . Empty nesters, and Young marrieds eat it up . . .
but they don’t buy games like the 14-35 age group.
Xbox has firmly won that group, and this holiday season will grow this lead significantly.
August 13th, 2008
Jonathan, Yeah that streaming will work if you plan on watching it at that moment. My bad. Still not exclusive to Xbox though. And yes money is made on games but the Wii is a demon which I believe was making money on each console from day 1. I’m sure Niny is quite happy no matter how you spin their sales. You can claim attach ratios (which you have every right to) but the 360 is still losing to the Wii!
August 13th, 2008
I agree Wylie . . . but tricycle sales aren’t compared against mountain bikes . . .
they’re in different markets.
August 13th, 2008
Jonathan,
You care too much about what the writers on this site think. But I agree that the 360 is not “losing” to the Wii. It’s as absurd as saying “But Porsche is losing to Toyota!”
-Arvis
August 13th, 2008
Arvis- Jonathan is the one who started comparing the Wii and 360 not me. So if he states that the 360 is beating the Wii, I feel I need to talk him back down.
August 13th, 2008
Jonathan- one last thing on your ratio bit. I’m not sure what the ratio numbers are but let’s say that the 360 is selling twice as many games than the Wii in the ratio. You need to remember that the Wii games are mostly first party games and the 360 are third party games. I’m not sure what MS makes per third party game, but let’s say they make 50% off each game (probably high). While Ninny makes 100%. So while selling half the game ratio they are making the same amount of money. Now I believe Wii games are less expensive and they do have to pay their dev. teams and I don’t have time to do all the figures. All I’m saying is you can’t just look at attachment ratio and conclude the 360 is doing better!
August 13th, 2008
I agree Wylie . . . but your point brings some other considerations:
First off, Attach ratios are about what I said - I think the wii is at 3 per console, and xbox is around 7.7 per console.
Second, consider this:
1. Let’s say MS makes $15 on (as you state “mostly”) 3rd party games. . . . so COD4 for instance.
Guess what is unique about that $15 per game, when compared to the $39 for 1st party games from Ninny . . .
That $15 MS just made, is completely off the top . . . no R&D, no development, pure revenue.
So although MS’s take with Halo (1st party) is nothing to be laughed off, MS’s take with 3rd party games is also nothing to be laughed off . . . they still make good money off of 3rd party publishers. And your statement that “ninny makes 100%” is incorrect, as they have dev costs they have to pay for. Therefore they also take all risks . . when a game tanks like Mario Cart, if they don’t make those costs back, they take the loss. MS doesn’t have to worry about this in most cases . . . other than viva piniata . . .
However - I only mentioned nintendo to state that as much as they are apparently making, they aren’t tromping Microsoft . . . if they are even beating them at all . . . Currently Microsoft has the most money spent on them during this console generation. But I digress . . . Ninny is making hands over fist right now . . . 700K consoles last month in US . . at probably a $100 profit . .. yeah, that’s good stuff.
But I don’t care about Wii . . . I have one, it sucks but my wife is happy.
I just care about this obvious PS3 site that just posts bogus crap - yet it links from google as “news.” Yeah - I’m talking to you dave parrack.
August 13th, 2008
I dunno about the wii suckage thing but you’re probably spot on with the rest.
I have like 7 games for my ps3, 7 for my 360, and 7 for my wii. They’re all fun - I see nothing else to buy for any of them tbh.
This generation is blowing, its annoying.
August 13th, 2008
Jonathan- I agree, and I did mention the developement teams, just didn’t go into the research. My only point is its not as simple as ratio to ratio. I don’t have the time and don’t care enough to figure out exactly what each company makes on each game.
You do need to take this site for what it is. I think they just want to stir the pot and get some debates going, it usually turns into flame wars, but I think they are looking for good debates. True usually they are PS3 bias but that seems to stir the pot more than being 360 bias.
August 13th, 2008
360 sucks SHIT! And anyone who likes or supports 360 sucks shit too
August 14th, 2008
Dont you own one yourself, therefore supporting the 360?
August 14th, 2008
*stifles a laugh*
-Arvis
August 14th, 2008
Ok so if 360 beats ps3 in sales for july…so what?
August 14th, 2008
Speaking of which, aren’t NPD numbers supposed to be out today?
-Arvis
August 14th, 2008
arvis - yeah, i think they are, but unless DaveP can find a way to spin it into flamebait, they won’t post an article.
August 14th, 2008
NPD:
1. Nintendo DS: 608,427
2. Wii: 555,012
3. PlayStation 3: 224,900
4. PlayStation Portable: 221,651
5. Xbox 360: 204,752
6. PlayStation 2: 155,510
August 17th, 2008
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080817-microsoft.html
August 20th, 2008
hahaha when i read all of your comments i laughed because the nintendo wii rules:-
1.nintendo wii
2.ps3
3.psp
4.xbox 360
5.DS
6.ps2
and i say no one can comment at me and if anybody wants to dare me i will tell him that the wii is the best just send to my e-mail best_at.soccer96@live.com
August 26th, 2008
Bottom line is this, 360 is soo much better than the ps3, ps3 is a blue ray player that also has about 150 games while the 360 has almost 400. Who gives a shit about a wii, its for children. It sells the most because it is cheapest. The ps3 is a failure beyond belief, if you look at the newest game informer they ranked the top 25 upcoming titles for the next year and most of them are either multi platform or 360 exclusives. Its all about the games, sony isn’t producing games but microsoft is. People who want a cheap blu-ray player buy a ps3 but people who want to play games and use it for a gaming console buy a 360. So if u must purchase overpriced blu ray movies and have something to watch them on, watch them on your ps3, as for me ill be streaming movies from netflix, playing amazing games, and by then you will really be tired of mgs4 cause that’s about all you sony fanboys have got that’s worth a damn.