PS3 & Xbox 360 successors to appear in 2011? – It’s all guesswork
While we’re probably not even halfway through this generation of home games consoles, speculation is already surfacing over the successors to the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii. The problem is: no one knows, probably not even Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo themselves – it’s all just pure guesswork.
There are various sports surrounding the console wars. You have flamebaiting, the fight to be the biggest fanboy, stats crunching, and trying to predict the future. That last hobby is usually the remit of the industry analysts such as Jesse Divnich and Michael Pachter. They make assumptions about where the industry is headed and then make up some stuff which may or may not turn out to be correct.
The latest man to turn his hand to predicting the future is Crytek president and CEO, Cevat Yerli, who used his keynote speech at this year’s GC Developer Conference, currently taking place in Leipzig, Germany, to spell out his beliefs about when the next generation of consoles will launch.
According to GI.biz, he said:
The PlayStation 4 and Xbox ‘720′ will arrive in 2011 or 2012, we think. But this is just our estimate – we don’t know, and even if Microsoft and Sony told us, I couldn’t say because it would be under NDA.
But we think in three to four years’ time, although there are good reasons why it should be 2010 already…but we’ll see.
Even though Yerli states quite categorically that this is merely an estimate, that hasn’t stopped the Internet being awash with stories claiming this to be some sort of concrete date. It’s not, in fact, it’s far from it.
I don’t like the fact that Yerli thinks the next gen consoles should launch in 2010 as I think that would be too early. In this generation especially, when all three home consoles are doing well, there is no need for any of the console manufacturers to panic and rush any new hardware out (as Microsoft arguably did with the Xbox 360).
2011/2012 is a fair guess, but it is just that: a guess. Yerli also seems to have forgotten the Nintendo Wii, the current market leader and the console likely to be replaced first.
If you want to play the game, let us know when you think the next gen consoles will be announced and then launched. Would you like it to be sooner rather than later or prefer the current gen consoles get given a good long working life before being put out to pasture?
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21 Responses to “PS3 & Xbox 360 successors to appear in 2011? – It’s all guesswork”
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August 19th, 2008
already!?? i’d be very pissed off if sony released another console.
August 19th, 2008
Me too
August 19th, 2008
Not gonna happen guys, don’t worry.
-Arvis
August 19th, 2008
agree. not gonna happen soon. it is more interesting to talk about what the 3 companies will do about their next gen console rather than guessing when will they be released.
August 19th, 2008
Well it doesn’t matter to me. PS3 and Xbox 360 are the last consoles I’m buying from those two companies. After this, I’m done with them.
…..I’m be reuniting with my beloved console Segalicious Supreme when it comes out in 2012 :p And then, Sega will rule all!!!!!! So enjoy your time in the Sun Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft because soon my console would outbeat YOURSSSS!!!!! muhahahahahahaha
August 19th, 2008
This seems reasonable. The 360 is already looking old and will absolutely need replacing by 2011. While the PS3 has a 10 year life span that in no way means they won’t release a new console before then. The PS2 is still alive 8 years later, I don’t see why Sony wouldn’t release the PS4 seven years into the PS3 life span. It gives the new system some time to pick up steam while still raking it in from the current platform hardware/software sales which are always higher in both sales and profit during the later years of a console’s life.
August 19th, 2008
pfreak – Somone needs to do more math? If the ps4 is released in 2011, thats 5 years into its life cycle (released 2006)…
August 19th, 2008
360 is staying fresh with all the software updates and the new UI coming out. 360 has something for everyone now and is still best ( besides PC ) for hardcore gamers. People need to realize it’s not just about horsepower, the 360 is very versitile.
PS3 will get alot of sales in another year or two when the price is really low and the game library is better.
The next next gen console from anyone is more then likely to have double+ the PS3’s power I would think. 2011 wouldn’t be a far off bet.
August 19th, 2008
I’m assuming a Nov launch date for all systems, as to capitalize on North American spending habits.
X720 in 2010-11 – To keep with the first-to-market strategy that worked so well with the x360, as well as considering how far into its potential that the 360 has achieved, 2011 would make sense. 2010 could be possible (or even necessary) should the hardware-antiquity induced gap escalate in severity.
PS4 in 2012 – I think six years into the PS3’s lifecycle would be appropriate. Although, if MS does indeed move the next gen console in 2010, I wouldn’t be surprised by a 2011 release date.
I think it will be mostly dependent on what MS decides to do with their next gen console. At the very least, we have a few good years of not having to reinvest to obtain the top tier home gaming consoles.
August 19th, 2008
Just like the DS and the PSP, they’ll release updates or something. That’s it. These systems will be around for quite a while. I’m thinking 2012-14.
August 19th, 2008
Xbox 360 will come successor might come out early late 2011 or early 2012. As for PLAYSTATION 3 successor maybe in Late 2012 early or mid 2013. Video game system are now stronger they will last more than the previous consoles.
August 19th, 2008
Nintendo will release their next console in 2011, most likely. 2012 wouldn’t be a terrible surprise.
Sony and MS will get their consoles out a year later, because they will not want to give Nintendo not only the popularity they’ve gained from this gen, but a long time on the market alone.
All consoles will be released in October or November.
August 19th, 2008
Sony knows never to make the mistake of quick console turn-overs by looking at the example of Sega. Although the dreamcast was a good console, the company and the console itself failed ultimately shortly after it’s release. All because of multiple consoles being released in a short amount of time. Thus leaving their fanbase and developers bitter and broke. Sony still claims their console will be around for a decade. Which also explains why it was over engineered.
This article is “Guesswork” indeed.
August 19th, 2008
I heard from a kids who is in a daycare with one of my nieces that the next generation consoles will be coming out in September of this year. Sony’s releasing the PS-1000 – you know, because bigger numbers means it’s gotta be good – , Microsoft will be releasing the X-Box 1,001 (because having a bigger number means it must be better!!…?????) and the Wii will release their Nintendo Wii 2000 because they think very highly of their consoles. That’s just an estimate for another possibly-wrong source.
August 19th, 2008
A friend of a friend of a friend of a friend of a friends brothers neighbors step dads sister in law said your all full of shit.
August 20th, 2008
You people do realise that developers haven’t even touched on 50% of the PS3’s hardware capabilities?It is so hugely powerful that 10 years was the minimum estimate of its lifespan.
Developers have stated on numerous occasions that in only 2011/2012 will they have pushed the PS3 to 80% of its potential.Sony and MS have realised that overly powerful hardware is not the key to sales and in turn profits(Cough…Wii).Yeah BlueRay is the standard for current and future hardware platforms,but the PS3 was over engineered and Sony needs to recover the Billions spent on R&D before they resort to any future console be it PS4 or whatever.
PS3 is here to stay until 2018 and the next console will only be a slight evolution as Sony has learnt a lesson on R&D viz powerhouse systems will take a backseat to creativity instead.Sony is a business and like any business,they in it for the money.PS3 will prove itself in the next few years,more and more developers are only starting to understand its architecture and how to code for it,and have realised they have only thus far scratched the surface of this powerhouse.
August 20th, 2008
mike = loser
August 20th, 2008
They will be released when they are released, and us chumps will line up and fork over large sums of cash for ‘em.
Thats all you need to know
August 21st, 2008
“You people do realise that developers haven’t even touched on 50% of the PS3’s hardware capabilities?It is so hugely powerful that 10 years was the minimum estimate of its lifespan.”
Please the graphics chip in the PS3 is already terribly out of date and is several times less powerful than current PC parts.
If Sony hang on to the PS3 for 10 years their games will look a lot better than launch games but they’ll look crap next to anything else.
August 21st, 2008
Me,
there is a difference between Console gamers and PC gamers. I happen to be both.
The PC gamer in me is always spending tons of $$$ just to stay current or have top of the line. I am also having to deal with compatibility problems due to the wide variation of hardware specs (and drivers) in the PC world.
With console gamers, they just expect to put the game disk in (or load the downloaded game) and have it work. As of now, the PS3 hardware is everything a console gamer needs for a decade (just like the PS2 lifespan). Who cares if there is better PC technology on the market, that aspect gets outdated every few months anyways.
Consoles and PCs (although the line has been getting gray) are two separate entities with two different demographics. The life span of consoles is MUCH longer than a PC. Therefore, the current gen consoles will satisfy gamers and the developers for years to come. Again, just look at the horribly outdated PS2 still alive and kicking.
August 24th, 2008
With the current state of the world economy I expect manufactures to use 8 to 10 year console cycles. The next generation will have 48 to 100’s of cores. They will be capable of more than just playing games or movies sucessively, but will be able to do the work of all nine boxes under your tv concurrently.
:written on a wii