August sales - analysts predict Wii drop, PS3 beating Xbox 360
By Dave Parrack
The analysts predictions are in. And they show that sales of the Nintendo Wii are dropping, while the PS3 has managed to just stay ahead of the Xbox 360 for the second month in the row. But it’s all guesswork at this point in time, and could prove to be wholly inaccurate.
It’s that time of the month again. No, not that time of the month, but the time of the month when the analysts try and predict the future and inform us of the US software and hardware sales figures days before they are officially revealed. While the NPD figures will be released later this week, for now we can make do with the crystal ball-gazing of Pachter and company.
According to PC World, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that the Wii will have sold around 550,000 units in the US during August. This is 5,000 less than Nintendo managed in July and seems to show demand for the Wii finally slowing down. Or does it?
It could actually still be an issue of supply, with the US only receiving about 1/3 of the total world supply of consoles, compared to the 40% the country usually receives. The severe shortages experienced over the 2007 holiday season seem to be coming back with a vengeance, even though we’re still four months away from Christmas.
Pachter also believes that the PS3 will beat the Xbox 360 for the second month in a row, and with about the same sort of gap between the two. He believes the PS3 will manage sales of around 225,000 compared to 200,000 units of the Xbox 360 sold. I think Pachter just looked at the July sales figures and copied them down for this month’s predictions.
While hardware seems to have stalled over the summer, software sales are expected to be up by a huge margin. Pachter told Gamasutra:
Software sales growth has been extraordinary thus far in 2008. We believe that the video game software sector remains highly recession-resistant.
Pachter believes software sales will have risen by around 20% over last month, which equates to around $600 million. EA alone is expected to account for around $200 million of that figure, with Nintendo managing $100 million.
As usual, we’ll find out how right or wrong Pachter and his tea leaf-reading cohorts are later in the week. But assuming they are even remotely accurate, it looks like the games industry is continuing to remain healthy in the face of a global recession. Which is good news for us gamers as it means price rises are unlikely to happen any time soon.
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September 9th, 2008
Hold on…
Where is the mention of a price cut in this article?!?
September 9th, 2008
Ok, so Pachter is predicting PS3 will win this month. That guy is the kiss of death, seriously. I would not be surprised if 360 won this month just because it’s the opposite of what he is saying.
September 9th, 2008
The battle for second place ranges on.
September 9th, 2008
lol the xbox is lame , it will never be No 1
it has a year advantage , it has more games , better online , its cheaper than the ps3 but its been outsold by the ps3 almost every month
in the us
September 9th, 2008
@ steve_fox…..ur wrong about somethings…..1. It has more games- actually ps3 is catching, QUICKLY, and most of 360 games are soo lame and 1 hour long…..2. It has better online- WRONG, M$ is “money driven”, the only reason why it cost money is bc M$ is cheap and all they want money, XBL is so damn laggy, XBL practically started Lag….3. Its Cheaper- YEAH RIGHT, even with the price drops, its still WAYY more expensive….did you know ps3 can have a 500GB HDD?…IT SURE CAN!!, if you want to have all the things the ps3 has, youll be spending ALOT…ACTUALLY, THE 360 PRICE IS INFINITE!! $50 EVERY YEAR FOR SHITTY ONLINE…..also, did you steal Stevie Fox’s name from Tekken 4?
September 9th, 2008
Matt, if you are so enthusiastic about your PS3, why are you wasting time posting your jibberish on this site? Or are you just trying to make yourself feel better?
September 9th, 2008
Given how inaccurate the predictions were in July (they were giving the 360 winner by a margin superior to 100.0000), I’d say the PS3 will indeed win August (7 months out of 8 in 2008, May having been a virtual draw), but by a larger margin than 25k. Say around 50k more.
Also, if things continue the way they seem to be in September (based on Amazon sales ranking), The PS3 will again outsell the 360 in September despite the huge price drop.
September 9th, 2008
Point is tho, 25k or 50k, gonna take alot of months to catch up X (because I don’t really care about the gap) million units.
Sales can slide for the 360 1k a month, 10k a month, and its not really going to make a differance for a billion years (slight exaggeration!).
Yes, I own a PS3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!oneoneone.
September 9th, 2008
haha
the XBOX360 will NEVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
be No 1 , it will ALWAYSSSSSSSSSS be number 3 after ps3 or wii , the xbox260 sux it just a xbox with better graphics if u bought just because its cheaper ur an idiot
September 9th, 2008
If you rearrange ’steve_fox’ you can almost make ‘Crazy Ivan’
September 10th, 2008
SW, I think Ivan has more than just the one persona. The more rabid PS3 posts reek of Ivan PSP.
September 10th, 2008
harry sachz:
SW:
This is my first post on this topic.
September 10th, 2008
Nup, I refuse to believe there are more people like you out there Ivan.
September 10th, 2008
Actually SW, about your point about units sold, I have to agree. Let’s say that there is approximately a 5 million unit difference between 360 and PS3 in the USA, according to VGchartz.com. And let’s say that month upon month the PS3 wins by 25,000 units. 5 million divided by 25,000 is 200, meaning that it will be 200 months, or 16.6 years, until PS3 catches up.
Not that it effects me, I don’t own shares in either company. But this argument comes up monthly.
September 10th, 2008
You can’t compare month to month because some months are going to be different like the next few months will be holiday shopping.
MS didn’t drop the price of the 360 to gain sales. They did it because they realize it’s just not worth what they were selling them for. LOL
The wii is slowing down because there are plenty in the stores around here (Ottawa Canada)
September 10th, 2008
I can’t believe I’m going to type this but here it goes. I agree with Harry, if Prachter says the PS3 is going to win this month, then surely the 360 will come out on top. Prachter should really quit his job and become a weather man!
September 10th, 2008
Wylie,
You beat me to it…
-Arvis
September 10th, 2008
Has Patcher ever been right?
September 10th, 2008
PLAYSTATION 3 has been destroying the Xbox 360 all year long so this is definitely believable. PS3 won duh obvious…
September 10th, 2008
He was right when MGS4 was released, but that was a no-brainer.
September 11th, 2008
It’s about time for the Wii sales to go down. Nintendo needs to start hording them for Christmas…again.
I’ve not noticed the Wii sold out in stores around here, but there are fewer on the shelves than PS3’s and 360’s. Demand is certainly healthy.
I think its most likely that the PS3 and 360 are so close to the same amount of sales that second and third won’t really make much difference. Neither should gain or lose much ground.
However, I will step asside and let the war over second among the fanboys rage on.
September 11th, 2008
Matt,
Yeah, and Toyota is killing Ferrari and Lambroghini in sales, too, so they must make a much better car…
-Arvis
September 11th, 2008
The difference between Ferrari and Sony is that Ferrari can charge a huge premium for its products but Sony sells the PS3 at a loss.
Face it Sony’s in the same game as Nintendo and Nintendo are killing them at the moment.
September 11th, 2008
Well, results are in….. 360 beat PS3. That dude can’t predict shit!!!