Will the Wii fall to Xbox 360 and PS3 in 2009?
By Dave Parrack
Regular readers will know I’m not a fan of the Wii. While the little Nintendo box has a few neat tricks up its sleeve I just can’t look past the fact that it’s a novelty, and all novelties eventually wear off. Could 2009 be the year this happens to the Wii, and will the PS3 and/or Xbox 360 be able to benefit from the change.
The Wii has had a very successful two years or so. In that time, it has overtaken the Xbox 360, released a year before it, to become the market leader of this console generation. The PS3, well that has stayed in third place from launch until now, unfortunately.
The Wii has managed to acquire and make fans from all walks of life, with age, gender, and race seemingly being no barrier to a bit of Wii Remote waggling. And this is a good thing, make no bones about it. I’m welcoming the new casual gamers into the industry with open arms as they will bring with them the money needed for developers to keep making games, and a console fan base that will hopefully last long after the Wii has joined the SNES and PS1 in gaming nirvana.
But, as well as the Wii continues to do, and with sales exceeding 2 million during November in the U.S. it shows no sign of slowing down yet, it’s time has to come, and it’s a matter of when rather than if. 2009 could be the year when the sales start slowing down, and when people sick of their Wii start selling them on eBay, making supply greater than demand for the first time in the console’s life.
A writer at SlapStic explains why he is choosing now as the time to sell his Wii, arguing that you need to do it before everyone else jumps on the bandwagon and the prices you can charge go down. He has a point, but if Wii owners do start dropping their consoles like hot potatoes, which of the two competitors is likely to benefit the most?
At the moment, the Xbox 360 looks a much better alternative to the PS3 for Wii owners looking to graduate to the true current-gen. The Microsoft console is much more affordable, has more games, and consequently more bargain offerings, and with the RRoD virtually eradicated from the new models, it’s a good choice of machine.
I’m not saying 2009 will be the year when the Wii nosedives, because I don’t truly believe it. But the downturn has to come at some point and when it does it’s going to get rather messy. It’s up to Microsoft and Sony to position their consoles in the best place to pick up as many ex-Wii owners as possible.
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January 4th, 2009
Its about bloody time, market saturation can only be around the corner surely. Every man and his dog have one. (yes thats a very premature but still, the wii is only a glorified ps2 with “fancy” controllers)
January 4th, 2009
“Will the Wii fall to Xbox 360 and PS3 in 2009?”
Nope.
January 4th, 2009
no… no it wont…
on other news… want to hear something really funny??
Xplay nominated Too Human for “Best Multiplayer” and “best Innovation” (right stick melee fighting)
…
yeah… I was shocked too…
January 4th, 2009
nope… we all know it… and it’s not gonna happen… not this year, specially when wii motion+ is just around the corner, and wii sports resort will attract the casual players, and the rumored work in progress zelda wii and mario galaxy games to attract hardcore gamers. not to mention xbox360 level graphics FPS the conduit.. for me, 2008 wii is nothing compared to 2009 wii.. so let’s see..
January 4th, 2009
Wii has already won this war.
DWH, have you played Too Human? It’s actually quite a lot of fun, it didn’t deserve the mauling it received.
January 4th, 2009
also this just in… VG charts claims that Wii Sports is the Best Selling Videogame… OF ALL TIME!!!
http://www.joystiq.com/2009/01/04/wii-sports-is-best-selling-game-of-all-time-according-to-vgchar/
sorry people… we have all lost… even the great Master Chief couldnt compete with the waggle master… time to hang up our fanboy hats…
*ahem*
I LOVE WII!!! ITZ AWEsOMEZZ!!! YEAH ALL YOU OTHAS SUCKZ
January 5th, 2009
Yes, it is true, the Wii could take a nosedive in sales, perhaps even to the tune of losing half of it’s yearly sales, and still wind up outselling the PS3 and 360 by 1-2 million this year. Not exactly a fall in the big picture.
January 5th, 2009
maybe 2011, when WII comes out.
January 5th, 2009
I dont know why you hate the Wii Dave… it has good games… sure unnecessary waggling makes good games even shittier… but there are still good games… specially if you didnt have a Gamecube??
hate Ninty for milking the stupid for money… dont hate on the Wii… cant we just all get along???
January 5th, 2009
darkwhitehair,
no, there are NO good games on the Wii. It doesn’t have half the good games of the PS3 (I think that is 65 and counting, not counting VC, and maybe about 10 rereleases - they just don’t exist anymore), just as the PS3 doesn’t have only about half the good games of the 360.
No, those families can’t find any good family games, or educational games, or fitness game(s:), or kid’s games, and even they did, they would all be “stupid” and just handing over there money for nothing in return, and the myth keeps being perpetrated by evil Nintendo who is twirling their handlebar mustache in the corner. People who have only one arm (granted, their are not that many) do not appreciate the simplicity of the Wii-mote on several games they could not play before, or had to struggle with. In fact, nobody appreciates the simplicity of the Wii-mote, and everybody is swinging their Sixaxis controllers in glee to wonder filled moments of Lair. Old people in retirement homes and children and parents and families everywhere all picked up Metal Gear Solid 4 and Disgaea 3 before WiiPlay or Sports, and people who are out of shape and happen to like an electronically interactive workout go gaga for GZ Pro-Sport. But there are good games for those with backwards compatible consoles… specially if you didn’t have a Playstation 2??
hate Sony for milking the stupid for money… don’t hate PS3… can’t we just all get along???
January 5th, 2009
Carl, and you accuse me of oozing sarcasm!
January 5th, 2009
lock_down,
Sorry, sometimes I just can’t resist responding in kind
January 5th, 2009
there ARE good Wii games carl… sure the Zelda port need unnecessary waggling.. but Mario Galaxy is game of the year man… game of the fucking year…
No more heroes is good… mad world looks promising… and as I said… since I didnt have a gamecube… the library is doubled for me… Id love to try out Animal Crossing (not the new one) and Pikmin and Luigis mansion and other good games… it just depends on your taste I guess… I like all kinda games… cept for JRPGs…. they steal your soul…
January 6th, 2009
heh, that one of the reasons I loved the PS1 and PS2 so much… RPG’s in general… souls are overrated.
January 6th, 2009
Unless a REAPER casts DESOUL! on you in Shining in the Darkness… ah… well, point taken.
January 6th, 2009
remember Soul Reaver game?? that was so fucking awesome… they should make a nex gen version…
January 6th, 2009
I heard Wii still sells in nursing homes across the US! I do not think the 360/PS3 could penetrate that kind of age bracket…. LOL….
January 6th, 2009
Here’s to hoping those units for cheap on ebay or CL start showing up soon!
January 6th, 2009
yeah I remember that one… I just didn’t have as much fun with it as Shadowman on the Dreamcast… I think I liked Blood Omen more as well.
January 7th, 2009
Wii is garbage
January 7th, 2009
It’s too bad there are more good games to play on it than PSP. Ah well. Maybe Sony will come out with a Pee to make you happy.
January 7th, 2009
How bout PeeShitPee or PeeShitThree!!!
January 7th, 2009
No, that would encourage the little ones too much.
January 8th, 2009
Carl - The PSP 2009 lineup is actually pretty good.
Dissidia: Final Fantasy
Square-Enix
Release date: TBA 2009
Final Fantasy Agito XIII
Square-Enix
Release date: TBA
Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep
Square-Enix
LocoRoco 2
SCEA
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite
Capcom
Release date: TBA 2009
Patapon 2
Sony
Release date: TBA
Phantasy Star Portable
Sega
Resistance Retribution
Sony Bend
Release date: Q2 2009
Star Ocean: Second Departure
Square-Enix
Release date: Januray 20, 2009
Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 2
Namco
The 3rd Birthday/Parasite Eve 3
Square-Enix
Undead Knights
Tecmo
Ushiro
Level 5
Cardboard Senki
Level 5
Release date: 2009
January 9th, 2009
Sounds great. Hopefully more than 5 for this list are good for the entire year.
January 28th, 2009
Great, just as I thought gaming websites were finally only letting people who actually know anything about gaming write articles I see this.
Your ‘logic’ of “It’s doing well and getting better so it HAS to do badly this year” just reaks of Sony/360 fanboy on an internet forum desperate to find something bad about the Wii, whilst bizarrely claiming that graphics are in any way important. Maybe I’m just being optimistic here, but if sales are increasing maybe that’s a sign that the Wii will do well? No?
Even if, for some mad reason, New Years Day this year did magically make no one buy a Wii, it would be years - literally years - for the PS3 to catch up. And all the 360s in existence will have long RRODed in the decades it would take for the 360 to catch up.
As for calling people ‘casual’ gamers… no. That has no place in articles. That’s for little kids trying to make themselves feel good by calling themselves “hardcore” because they’ve got nothing better to do than sit at home and play games. The hardcore/casual gamer distinction (or, as it’s more commonly known as, the “whingey noob/gamer distinction”) has no place on websites, only in the minds of attention seeking children.