Will Blu-ray help PC gaming make a comeback?
As many of you may know, the demise of PC gaming has been forecasted for sometime now. Many have attributed the reason for this demise to the rampant piracy that has been growing on the PC. However, with the advent of Blu-ray, will PC gaming make a comeback?
You could say that I am an avid PC gamer with a state of the art rig. I have been playing games on the home computer since the days of the Commodore 64. I actually break out the ancient device sometimes and play a game of Beach Head II. Knife fight anyone?
Also, some of my favorite games of all time are PC games, such as Quake and Day of the Tentacles. It was a sad day when companies like Lucas Arts stopped making great PC games due to the increase in piracy. PC fanboys today will argue that gaming on the PC is doing just as well as it did before. However, the reality is it really is not. As time passes it seems that more and more PC only developers are jumping ship to the consoles.
Studios have even expressed anger at the rampant bittorrent sites seeding illegal copies of their games. However, with the introduction of Blu-ray, there is a ray of hope that PC gaming may make a comeback to its former glory days. Hackers have tried to fully crack the Blu-ray format for two years now and have had mediocre success.
Blu-ray has three layers of security, the AACS, BD+ and BD-ROM Mark. The AACS and BD+ have been hacked by AnyDVD to a certain degree. However, due to the persistent security mechanism built into each player the security changes with each new version. The format definitely makes piracy much more difficult than anything else on the market.
Eventually Blu-ray may go the way of the DVD in 10 years. However, the one thing going for the new format is its capability to recognize new versions of the security updates with the players. I am hoping that PC gaming will make a comeback with a vengeance.
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January 17th, 2009
Isn’t ROM marking just a way for the reader (or pc i guess in this case) to determine if the disc is ‘real’ (like a watermark)?
PC game protection already got the point a few years back where it could determine if you had a legit copy in the tray (or in a virtual drive for that matter) and then that was bypassed.
The game itself can’t access the ‘watermark’ because its not supposed to be read by anything other than the drive itself, in which case there are already pieces of software out there than can image blu ray discs (without the watermark of course). There are over 50 PS3 blu ray releases out there already.
IMO blu ray’s piracy prevention extends only to the PS3 because blanks cost $15+ a pop for the single layer discs (and you’d have to use discs unless you had a hdd loader or something)… For PC, I suspect it will be just like today -> Scene releases ISO of game, mount, install, copy over no ‘blu ray’ crack. Done.
January 17th, 2009
Game dev arguments that piracy kills their business are just BS.
I have no doubt that a majority of the pirated downloads are never played, and a majority of those that ARE played are played by folks that never would have bought it the first place.
They ought to be innovating reasons to encourage us to buy, not “innovating” more ways to punish/hamper those of us who do buy
January 17th, 2009
Wow.
This has to rank as the biggest fanboy ‘load’ I’ve seen you write yet Mike
(and there are several contenders).
“Hackers have tried to fully crack the Blu-ray format for two years now and have had mediocre success.”
You mean that every version and revision of Blu-ray security was broken within a couple of months, even the very latest and most sophisticated version.
I’d call that spectacularly successful myself.
“The format definitely makes piracy much more difficult than anything else on the market.”
Except that (according to the AnyDVD group) once you’ve gotten to grips with their methods it just gets easier and easier.
Hence their ability to break the last revision within 2 months.
Just what is supposed to be the appeal of an increasingly easy to defeat ’security’ system – even before any gaming devs get involved?
…..and if sales to PC on DVD are low, where are they supposed to come from if devs switch to using a Blu-ray disc?
Almost no-one has a Blu-ray drive in their PC so there’s no-one to sell to.
I can honestly say I don’t know – in real life – anyone using Blu-ray blank media (or for that matter with a Blu-ray drive in their PC).
The whole problem with your basic premise is that, relatively speaking, a mere handful have Blu-ray in their PCs.
There is no ‘market’ for the devs to run to……and it’s extremely unlikely they’ll drop DVD games for whatever tiny Blu-ray market there might be in the coming years.
“Blu-ray may go the way of the DVD in 10 years.”
Blu-ray can only dream of turning out like DVD.
The truth is that besides the PS3 boys and the relative handful of videophiles no-one else cares.
Blu-ray kept prices far too high for far too long and with HDDs being so cheap and large I do not see a new type of disc now being such a big deal to PCs.
In fact if we’re going to see anything I’d expect PC gaming to be the first to benefit from digital distribution.
The other thing we’ve seen is devs blaming ‘piracy’ for poor sales – of their cr@p games.
The PC market seems to me to much more discerning.
There’s no point doing a lukewarm reheat of a game they already bought ages ago and have played to death for years, they’ll spot it in an instant and just not buy it.
The console market (being that but younger generally speaking) might be into buying the same game over and over (come on guys, admit it, that’s all too often what’s going on) but the more mature PC guys won’t.
January 17th, 2009
This is a typical industry response to Piracy – lets just throw hardware at it. Bluray is little more than a speed bump to pirates.
I think the only real way of reducing piracy is using either gaming models like steam or even going one step further and introducing cloud computing. Either way these will require a login & verification process each time you play with the upside that you are not limited by physical media, and can install and play your games on any machine.
January 17th, 2009
wow…. so much for Blu-Ray being the next big thing. Still, I believe Blu-Ray player and disc prices will continue to decrease over the years and adoption should increase as a result. Digital copies now being included with movies help. And hybrid DVD/Blu-Ray discs are a great idea as well, except at currently $100 a disc still a wee bit impractical for the average consumer. Will it dominate like DVD has in the past? Probably not due to the immense popularity of downloads now. PS3 games will continue to be the realm of Blu-Ray for the immediate future. As for PC games, well, there just aren’t that many that are that large in size. The one that arguably does utilize Blu-Ray to it’s full extent is MGS4, and even this game could probably be reduced to DVD9 compatibility, regardless of whether it came on two discs or not. So Blu-Ray still has to overcome DVD and D2D/Steam type services in the gaming arena.
Security really isn’t a factor, considering how quickly it can be cracked:
“Slysoft have announced the latest revision of BD+ has been cracked! Dubbed the AnyDVD HD update version 6.5.0.2, was previously estimated to take a few months to develop by Slysoft when word of the recently uncrackable BD+ update was released. Slysoft instead cracked the newest update in a matter of weeks.”
formatwarcentral.com/2008/12/30/bd-plus-cracked-again/
Even Nintendo is getting into kid’s video content downloads next year to add to Blu-Ray woes, even though it might not be full HD:
formatwarcentral.com/2008/12/30/bd-plus-cracked-again/
What it boils down to is that Blu-Ray will continue to serve PS3 games and blu-ray owners well…
“but is there an actual need for Blu ray when most people will stick with DVDs until downloads become the norm anyway?”
Prescient words, Mr. Parrack.
January 17th, 2009
tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2008/02/17/hd-dvd-is-dead-now-blu-ray-needs-to-beat-dvd-and-downloads/
January 17th, 2009
Carl B
They got hybrid bluray/dvd disks now? Wow well it only made sence. It’s just a shame that this was one of the features of HD DVD among a list of other features that HD DVD had over bluray before Sony paid for Bluray to win. HD DVD was truly the better format which had inovation right from the start.
January 17th, 2009
Hey c’mon now.
“bluray before Sony paid for Bluray to win.”
MS has done its fair share of paying for exclusives now hasn’t it. Its just business. Sony & Co. had more $$$ to push blu ray, and a better way to get it instantly into millions of homes (ps3).
Sometimes that’s just how it goes.
January 17th, 2009
Sorry, no one is going to buy an overpriced drive.
What saves PC gaming is Steam and (to a lesser degree) Impulse.
They make being legit a “nice” thing as you get updates and other benefits such a stored configuration “in the cloud” and also achievements with steamworks.
January 17th, 2009
Steam with Steamworks is already saving PC gaming. A lot of games that used to be Console only are being ported now for the PC as well. I think the PC has been in an upward trend since about a year or so, but it’s so slow most people do not notice.
January 18th, 2009
CAD,
I thought everybody knew that by now. Well, regardless, HD-DVD is no longer a viable option and Blu-Ray must find ways that increase it’s transference. This could be one of them if the price comes down. Betamax was a better format from the start as well and others to boot… doesn’t seem to make much of a difference now though.
SW,
Good point everybody here should remember before they comment on “evil, greedy” Microsoft (or Sony for that matter). “It’s just business.”
Somehow, someway:
Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Thomson, LG Electronics, Hitachi, Sharp, Samsung, Sony Corporation, Apple, TDK, Dell, Hewlett Packard, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. and Universal Music Group
did manage to scrape enough money together to beat out
Toshiba, NEC, Sanyo, Microsoft, RCA, Kenwood, and Intel
but as you said that’s just how it goes.
January 18th, 2009
sorry I put Sony in there twice.
January 18th, 2009
Capitalism at its finest some would say!
January 18th, 2009
Blu-ray/DVD hybrids?
In theory it has always been possible (either as a combo double sided disc like the HD DVD combos or as a single sided disc with DVD & high def on the one side, just like the HD DVD ‘Twin Disc’ which was just ion the verge of launching as the plug was pulled on HD DVD – I believe there was one single Japanese anime release).
The big problem for the BDA is that the DVD Forum licence and control everything DVD.
You might see some sort of small scale Japanese release (I believe one is planned or may by now have happened) but that is nothing like the same as worldwide and general releasing.
Then there’s the matter of another set of expensive & brand new production lines (which was always a Blu-ray weakness compared to DVD or HD DVD – they use(d) almost identical facilities and switching to HD DVD was comparitively speaking very cheap for manufacturers).
January 18th, 2009
Either way this has no impact on Blu-ray for PC, which remains a minute and ridiculously expensive option few are turning to
(which as said means an almost non-existant market for game devs to look to).
January 18th, 2009
Happyhockum,
Hasn’t the price come down in the last couple of years and will continue to? I’m not arguing it will take over DVD, just that it won’t go anywhere for awhile and that sales should continue to slowly increase.
January 18th, 2009
I know the prices of the ROM drives seem to have dropped but the burners?
Not much but silly pricing there, still, as far as I could see.
Blu-ray blank media was also still absurdly expensive.
I just can’t see the point of it.
It’s not as conveniently useful as DVD (in terms of using with the movie players) and on a gb/$ it’s so far behind HDDs it’s not worth bothering with.
January 18th, 2009
Happyhockum,
Still expensive, but they still dropped.
Blank media is still expensive, but has also continued to drop in price over time.
I think the point (for some – not most) is the higher capacity.
I’m not attacking you here, but what did you mean by “It’s not as conveniently useful as DVD (in terms of using with the movie players)”?
I don’t think HDD’s were ever their competition. DVD’s are, and the difference in video quality can be great enough to some to justify a purchase. Digital downloads are now, but these still have yet to be standardized in quality and brought up to speed over time (don’t get me wrong, it will happen, but it will take some time). Again, Blu-Ray discs will sell as long as PS3 does, which by the looks of it seems as long as another 3-5 years, even if it is in third place, if not longer.
On a gb/$ SSD’s are far behind HDDs as well, but people still buy them, especially as their price also comes down.
The thing is, it is simply another option on a PC that can and will be utilized in the near future, just not ubiquitously anytime soon, if ever (the possibility remains though).
January 18th, 2009
I know you’re not attacking anyone CarlB, relax it’s just discussion.
What I meant was that thanks to the various so-called security features (and BDA licencing) some Blu-ray players will not allow you to play blank BD media.
So those who dream that Blu-ray and the Blu-ray burners and blank media are going to be just like a higher capacity better quality DVD are sadly misinformed.
I have no doubt that you’re right, as long as Sony stick with Blu-ray in one form or another it’ll survive.
But I think it’s now very clear it’s just going to be no more than as another minority niche product.
Already we know digital distribution is underway (there’s a new story about a streaming service or VOD service practically every day somewhere).
Now we know 2tb SD cards (with much higher bandwidth) is coming.
It’s the perfect match, much more so than bulky old discs.
It’s my view that in the end Blu-ray left it all too late and cannot grow fast enough to become what it’s backers had hoped.
January 18th, 2009
I am glad you are aware of that HappyHockum, did I seem stressed to you? I apologize for giving you the wrong impression.
That is an interesting point, though one that may not slow down Blu-ray player or disc sales anytime soon.
Over 20 million seems like more than a minority niche to me, but maybe you could clarify your term. If you are talking only about those who desire to record on the Blu-Ray format, then I agree, that probably will remain a niche.
Already we know that digital distribution has been underway, and that it will not fully take the place of optical discs anytime within the next 5+ years, though it will only grow in popularity until it eventually dominates as a format.
Could you provide the link for the 2tb SD cards you found? I would like to read it as I myself am a strong SD card supporter.
Many people will be disappointed by Blu-Ray’s end performance, but I doubt it was ever meant to be a permanent solution, and it should still be able to make a little cash for those who invested in it before it dies.
January 18th, 2009
You’re ok CarlB I didnt think you were stressed (just making sure).
Why do I think Blu-ray will stay niche?
Well we now know that even with Iron man, Wanted and Batman TDK it took 4.25% of the movie disc market.
Those 3 titles massively spiked sales and until much later in the year it’s extremely unlikely Blu-ray will be selling anything like that 4.25%.
(note how removed the true units sold stat is from the 12% – 20% of ‘the top 20 best selling movie discs’ that the heavily slanted in Blu-ray’s favour Nielson stat)
The numbers are actually units shipped not sold, but let’s be generous, it’s 63.2 million blu-rays verses 1.4 billion DVD.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6627437.html?nid=3511
4.25% is tiny minority niche however you cut it and globally it’s no better (excepting Japan as an oddball case – though for a little perspective even there VHS leads Blu-ray by 10-1 http://www.techradar.com/news/home-cinema/10x-more-vhs-owners-in-japan-than-blu-ray-ones-497045?src=rss&attr=all) what with the US having led with HD TV adoption.
You’ll find some interesting info on the coming 2tb SD cards here – http://crave.cnet.co.uk/accessories/0,39101000,49300513,00.htm
As for the return anyone might see on Blu-ray?
I seriously doubt it’s anything but a massive black hole in everybodies’ accounts.
Last I heard even Sony (with far and away the biggest selling Blu-ray devices – PS3 & BDP300/350) had given up expecting to recoup their years of multi-billion $ investment/losses and were now concentrating on mere day to day production costs.
January 18th, 2009
Look at all you you HD-DVD supporters sucking sour grapes…….GET OVER IT. I’ve never seen that many bunch of sookies in one place….sheesh
And the same old argument popped up again “Sony paid to have blu-ray win” Even if they did…..Who Cares ?? Microsoft pays out just about everything to get it’s way….. No double standards there, is there ??
January 19th, 2009
I really wonder what self proclaimed Xbox 360 fanboys like Happyhockcum would say if Blu-ray was developed by Microsoft.
I’m sure they would proclaim it to be the next coming.
Just look at it from a technology stand point, its bigger and better than DVD and thats all that matters.
I really don’t understand some fanboys obsession that Blu-ray will fail, apparently the adoption rate is more than double that of DVD same time in its life.
When is it a success? I really want to know.
If by next year it is still outpacing the adoption rate of DVD during its same life is it a success then?
January 19th, 2009
I really wonder what self proclaimed Xbox 360 fanboys like Happyhockcum would say if Blu-ray was developed by Microsoft.
I’m sure they would proclaim it to be the next coming.
Just look at it from a technology stand point, its bigger and better than DVD and thats all that matters.
I really don’t understand some fanboys obsession that Blu-ray will fail, apparently the adoption rate is more than double that of DVD same time in its life.
When is it a success? I really want to know.
If by next year it is still outpacing the adoption rate of DVD during its same life is it a success then?
http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2009/01/03/blu-ray-being-adopted-faster-than-dvd/
January 19th, 2009
Mike says the adption rate for blu-ray is faster right here with sources and everything:
http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2009/01/03/blu-ray-being-adopted-faster-than-dvd/
January 19th, 2009
HappyHockum,
I think Dirk has a good point in outpacing DVD if the figures exist to support it, but also that there is a qualitative improvement over DVD and that Blu-Ray should own even more market share by next year. So, if 4.25% of this massive market is “niche” to you, what do you consider to not be niche any longer? 10% or higher? It is likely that will happen.
January 19th, 2009
I’m sorry but I think the digital downloads will be the niche for years to come. Blu ray has a better looking immediate future. Reasons I have. As people buy HDTV’s, the blu ray players connected to them to show them in stores will look tempting. Some are even free with purchase of a TV. Also, besides computer savvy people, who has their computer connected to their TV’s for movie watching? The casual people are not doing this, and won’t be any time soon. Not to mention, many people like physical media. We are not talking about music here. Movies get borrowed to friends and family a lot. I’m not saying it will never happen, because I’m sure it will someday. We just aren’t as close as Xbots would like to think!
January 19th, 2009
Spideydog
Is English not your 1st language?
Show me where I emntioned anything about paying to win.
Sourgrapes!?
Hardly.
What sort of lunacy is that anyway?
Turn off all your critical faculties cos you (don’t make me laugh) ’support’ Sony et al?!
Blu-ray growth has been minimal, in fact practically invisible outside the PS3 niche and the early adopting a/v philes
(of which I am one, but then I am happy to accept that and am not trying to convince myself or others of the fanboy claims).
You seem to have missed the fact that I own an excellent Blu-ray player (far superior to the PS3, it bitstreams all the HD audio codecs and is multi-region for both Blu-ray and DVD).
The number btw turns out to be 4.45% (I’ve given the details below) and that is not especially ‘massive’.
In the USA it’s 63.154 million discs to DVD’s 1.407 billion.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES2009yearEnd.htm
Globally it’s a much smaller percentage.
DVD sales have not really been outpaced (it all depends on whos’ numbers you believe).
Here are numbers released in april 08 showing high def (both formats) trailing DVD in 07
http://www.mp3newswire.net/stories/8002/hd-DVD_outsells_blu-ray.html
It’s also a fact that DVD was not launched in a game console guaranteed to sell multi-millions fairly quickly.
Sorry but whatever you imagine the truth to be the fact is that Blu-ray has underwhelmed enormously.
CarlB
Niche is a minority share.
I do not see Blu-ray ever going beyond a true 20% – 25% of the annual sales of DVD.
In short it has cost the CE industry a vast fortune and they wil never see it dominate the market to anything even close to the level DVD has done (which was their original intention).
Note also the margins have dropped through the floor as prices have fallen (as I said earlier it is highly unlikely anyone – besides the movie studios – is making any money with Blu-ray.
Wylie77
Ignore it all you like but even Sony launched two downloading services (one for PS3 & one from Bravia owners).
Everyday there are reports of new streaming/downloading/VOD services.
You’re in denial.
Even if Blu-ray took off properly tomorrow it’s growth would be too slow to make a difference now.
A year or two at best, that’s how far away we are from a credible high quality high definition digital download on demand situation (and those growing numbers of people with 10mb+ connections are already there).
January 19th, 2009
Happy,
I’m not in denial. Like I said it will more than likely happen some day. But even if it is a year or two away from having credible high quality high definition digital downloads, that doesn’t mean the consumers will be ready or willing to purchase it. You may be set up for down-loadable movies, but most people are not. Computer savvy people are not the majority. I will agree to disagree with you, and I will wait to see who is right.
January 19th, 2009
*Squinting* so which one is hotter… the one in the pink? Or the one in the blue? I think I’m going with pink…
January 19th, 2009
Happyhockum,
No, english is not my first language…. you got a problem with that ??
Before you go shooting from the hip and embarrassing yourself, exactly where in my post did it directly name you specifically ?? Your comprehension of the english language seems to be the issue here, not mine ??
Point out where I named you and your “attack” may have some cred!! Until then you just shot yourself in the foot. (take ten deep breaths, perhaps)
January 20th, 2009
HappyHockum,
I see, so they are about as “minority share” as Xbox 360 for is for the gaming market? As IPhone is to the cell phone market? As Zune is to the MP3 player market? That’s not too bad after all (though agreeably not nearly as much as Sony expected by now, long term plan or no). I see you are also part of that “niche” market, so obviously you saw something in it, as likely others will as well in the future (though probably not me anytime soon), especially as price continues to drop. Again, I am not saying Blu-Ray will dominate over DVD or downloads in the future, merely that it will not go the way of the dodo for another five years at least, and during that time will continue to increase in sales. Why? Because some people see it as a natural upgrade, something they have to get because it exists, just as people don’t usually get all the use they can out of their cars, cell phones, hdtv’s, mp3 players, game consoles, or computers before they get a new one, because of their usually puerile consumerism mentality that says “I have to get this” (I have said this for the last seven console generations).
January 20th, 2009
Spideydog
My apologies, I had not seen anyone mention anybody ‘buying’ anything but I looked again and saw CAD had mentioned that.
CarlB
A minority share is niche, yes.
Of course there are some niches bigger than others.
Nevertheless the whole point of Blu-ray was
(a) to return to the CE corps and movie studios the kinds of margins they enjoyed when DVD first launched and
(b) to replace DVD completely and on a similar scale.
They have singularly failed in these goals.
As I was saying –
Sega signs digital distribution deal
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=21915
January 21st, 2009
No worries Happy. Alot of what I said in the last post was in Jest
January 21st, 2009
Happyhockum,
Good to know your terms. So to you anything below 50% is niche, and because Blu-Ray will not get the same profit margin DVD has in the past competing with only VHS, and also because it doesn’t replace DVD completely, it is a failure overall?
Four titles yet to be released for digital distribution from Sega is a start. I believe DD should hit it’s tipping point for games sometime within the next 5 years or shortly thereafter. Until then (if not for awhile after) Blu-Ray will continue to be a nice upgrade in a consumer society. It would be bad timing if the recession lasted that long though.
January 21st, 2009
CarlB
Well they were the original openly stated aims once upon a time
(and I can’t help thinking that had they known the levels at which they’d be discounting this early into the format’s time they may well not have bothered).
Of course less than 50% is niche – particularly up against DVD which currently takes, despite all the hype 95%+ of the market.
Unless you take 50%+, or at least close to it, you can hardly claim to ‘dominate’, even in a world of several minority formats (unless those minorities are numerous and each tiny – not the most likely situation here).
Unless Blu-ray can turn another 2 or 3 big selling titles to match Iron man & Batman TDK do you really see Blu-ray doing as well as this year?
I don’t.
…..and that is in relation to movies.
As far as blank media adoption and use in PCs the situation is even more dire.
Naturally the BDA refuse to release any sort of credible verifiable numbers so we can all see exactly what is going on but do you really imagine blank Blu-ray media takes even 2% of the market right now?
Can you honestly see them move to 4% by the end of the year?
Do you honestly think Mike’s original thread idea is anything but the most unlikely possible development in this field this year?
January 29th, 2009
HappyHockum,
I have to agree that Blu-Ray will die a slow death unless there is a drastic decrease in price soon for both discs and players, though there is a good chance that they will continue to see minor increases in sales, “niche” market or no. I also find it interesting that the number one selling movie download on PS3 is Dark Knight.
On another note, I just saw WD’s 1TB HDD for a little over $100 on Amazon, and the 2TB for a little over $200. Awesome.