Nintendo Wii: room to expand, will overtake PS2, April price cut?
What do you know? There are no Wii stories for days and then a handful come along at once. Today sees Nintendo President Satoru Iwata talk about future prospects for the Wii, and speculation of a price cut coming in April. I know it’s only the Wii, but at least try and look excited.
Satoru Iwata is a man in an enviable position. He is running Nintendo at a time when it’s in complete control of the video games console market. Who cares that the Wii is seen as a kid’s toy? Who cares that after the initial excitement, the console is only likely to be brought out at parties? Who cares that the Wii has taken the market in a backwards direction compared to the PS3 and Xbox 360? Not Iwata, that’s for sure. Especially when the money is rolling in faster than his accountants can deal with it.
However, there are signs that in Japan a least, the Wii is starting to reach saturation point. Sales are slowing down, mainly because everyone who is going to want one of the consoles already has one. This has led to Nintendo cutting its forecasts for the Wii, which in turn led to a 12 percent drop in the company share price.
According to Game Daily, Iwata recently gave a financial presentation in which he tried his hardest to alleviate investors worries. He said:
Nintendo’s business has grown rapidly in the past three years. Can we maintain the size of the current business in the next fiscal year and beyond? Or, can we even expand the business in the years to come? These may be the questions that concern you most.
By pointing out the facts that DS sales pace was slowing down in the former half of 2008 and that Japanese sales of Wii did not have the same momentum as the U.S. and Europe have, some say that Nintendo’s Wii and DS businesses may peak out during this fiscal year. I think it is true that new information penetrates through the Japanese market very quickly and that Japanese people tend to get tired of something new very quickly. It is also true that the population is smaller when compared with that of other major markets, so it is inevitable that the market starts to feel saturated earlier than others.
Since technology continues to evolve, I do not think any hardware can enjoy eternal life. Someday, we will need a new platform for sure, and of course, Nintendo is always preparing for that. However, now that our customer base has expanded this drastically, we do not think it appropriate to conclude that past platform lifecycle theory can and should be applied to the current generation.
Wii has been selling at industry’s record pace so far, and with new customers acquired by the gaming population expansion efforts, it is not impossible for Wii’s total sales to exceed the final install base of PS2. Wii still has much more room for expansion. We can expect more sales of software in the next fiscal year than in the current year. With what kind of software is Nintendo going to achieve this goal? Well, it will be shown at E3 to be held in the U.S. this June.
I agree with Iwata about the relative size of the Japanese market. That was the one that was always going to shows signs of saturation first. However, the fact it’s already happened could be a worry, because it means the European and American markets will likely follow over the next two years. It could be that Nintendo’s success at pushing the Wii ends up killing the console faster.
There is also that little nod towards the future, with Iwata admitting Nintendo is always preparing its next piece of hardware. Basically, as soon as the Wii starts to show signs of failing to sell, its successor will be announced for the world to see.
On top of all this is the speculation recounted by Gaming Front that the Wii could get its first price cut since launch around April. This would coincide nicely with proposed price cuts for both the PS3 and Xbox 360, and move all three into the home stretch of the current-gen race for supremacy.
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19 Responses to “Nintendo Wii: room to expand, will overtake PS2, April price cut?”
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January 31st, 2009
I guess they could give it a price cut. There’s really no reason though. The cheapest 360 is $50 less expensive and its still being outsold by the wii.
January 31st, 2009
I can’t see it overtaking the PS2.. I can’t see it lasting 9 years like the PS2 has done.
Shouldn’t they just leave it “as is”?
It’s not like it’s doing badly.
January 31st, 2009
Wii will never sell more than the PS2. Because PS2 has way better games at a very low price. PS2 can can play DVD movies and cost way less. Also Wii has only bad games. Sony will never lose…
January 31st, 2009
Isn’t Wii selling more than PS2 right now Ivan?
January 31st, 2009
The Wii might well end up outselling the PS2 (and reaching those sales numbers faster too).
It has a lot going for it (although obviously an amsuingly large number of those self-appointed ‘serious gamers’ can’t abide it).
The public seem to love it pretty well though – and importantly are buying it in huge numbers with zero sign of the affection wearing off.
I’m not surprised, even besides all the Wii games that have proved so popular there’s that big back-catalogue of Gamecube games that work good with it are a big draw for many.
January 31st, 2009
Wii is outselling the now but it wont ever beat PS2 sales record. Almost 10 Years…
January 31st, 2009
wii have a larger market and have a unique & fresh way of playing games. a few years back, people are talking about wii will never beat the PS3, but now we are already talking about if the wii will beat PS2′s record. so we’ll just have to wait and see.
February 1st, 2009
Didn’t Wii already beat a few PS2 sales records Ivan?
February 1st, 2009
LoL you gotta be a real idiot or just delusional to believe something like a Wii can get close to the king/god/leader of gaming aka PlayStation. PS2 has amazing high class must have A+ exclusives. Wii is full of pure garbage it doesn’t even support DVD movie or HARD DISK DRIVE. The only thing Wii has to offer is a awkward geeky stupid controller scheme and no good or even decent must have game like PS2. Nintendo can’t never achieve greatness like Sony can.
top 100 playstation 2 games :
game title: genres: release date: rating:
Burnout 3: Takedown action,racing/driving 09/07/04 96%
Grand Theft Auto Double Pack action,racing/driving 10/21/03 96%
Grand Theft Auto III action,racing/driving 10/01/01 95%
Resident Evil 4 action,adventure 10/25/05 94%
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas action,adventure,racing/driving,rpg 10/26/04 94%
Pro Evolution Soccer 3 simulation,sports 08/07/03 94%
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City action,adventure,racing/driving 10/29/02 94%
Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons Of Liberty action,adventure,strategy 11/13/01 94%
Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec racing/driving,simulation 04/28/01 94%
God Of War II action,adventure 03/13/07 93%
Okami action,adventure 05/31/06 93%
Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence action,adventure 11/14/05 93%
God Of War action,adventure 03/22/05 93%
Ratchet And Clank: Up Your Arsenal action,adventure 11/02/04 93%
Virtua Fighter 4: Evolution action 06/20/03 93%
Dragon Quest VIII: Journey Of The Cursed King rpg 11/22/05 92%
Pro Evolution Soccer 5 action,sports 10/21/05 92%
NBA Street V3 action,sports 02/08/05 92%
Mercenaries: Playground Of Destruction action,adventure 01/18/05 92%
Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal action,adventure 11/02/04 92%
Madden NFL 2005 action,sports 08/09/04 92%
SSX 3 action,sports 10/21/03 92%
NCAA Football 2004 action,sports 07/16/03 92%
Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 4 sports 10/23/02 92%
Madden NFL 2003 sports 08/12/02 92%
NCAA Football 2003 sports 07/24/02 92%
Pro Evolution Soccer 2 sports 2002 92%
SSX Tricky action,sports 11/06/01 92%
Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 3 sports 10/30/01 92%
Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time action,adventure 12/31/69 92%
Final Fantasy X rpg 12/31/69 92%
Ratchet And Clank: Going Commando action 12/31/69 92%
Guitar Hero action,simulation 11/07/05 91%
Shadow Of The Colossus action,adventure 10/18/05 91%
Tekken 5 action 02/22/05 91%
Winning Eleven 8 sports 02/01/05 91%
World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 International sports 02/01/05 91%
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater action,adventure,strategy 11/16/04 91%
ESPN NFL 2K5 sports 07/20/04 91%
World Soccer Winning Eleven 7 International sports 2004 91%
Ratchet & Clank: Going Commando action,adventure 11/11/03 91%
Timesplitters 2 action,adventure 10/01/02 91%
Virtua Fighter 4 action 03/01/02 91%
Devil May Cry action,adventure 08/23/01 91%
Final Fantasy X adventure,rpg 07/19/01 91%
Madden NFL 2002 sports 2001 91%
SSX sports 10/26/00 91%
Dragon Quest VIII action,rpg 12/31/69 91%
Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Summoner 10/10/06 90%
Final Fantasy XII rpg 03/16/06 90%
Burnout Revenge action,racing/driving,sports 09/13/05 90%
NCAA Football 06 action,sports 07/12/05 90%
Viewtiful Joe action 08/24/04 90%
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2004 sports 09/22/03 90%
ESPN NHL Hockey sports 09/09/03 90%
ESPN NFL Football sports 09/02/03 90%
Madden NFL 2004 sports 08/12/03 90%
NBA Street Vol. 2 sports 04/29/03 90%
Soul Calibur II action 03/27/03 90%
World Series Baseball 2K3 sports 03/10/03 90%
Winning Eleven 6 International sports 2003 90%
Pro Evolution Soccer sports 10/21/01 90%
ICO adventure 09/25/01 90%
Twisted Metal: Black action,racing/driving 06/18/01 90%
Final Fantasy X-2 rpg 12/31/69 90%
Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 rpg 08/14/07 89%
Guitar Hero II action 11/28/06 89%
Bully action,adventure 10/17/06 89%
Madden NFL 06 action,sports 08/08/05 89%
Pro Evolution Soccer 4 sports 03/10/05 89%
Gran Turismo 4 action,racing/driving,simulation 11/14/04 89%
NCAA Football 2005 action,sports 07/15/04 89%
Tony Hawk’s Underground sports 10/28/03 89%
ESPN NBA Basketball sports 10/21/03 89%
Jak II action,adventure 10/14/03 89%
Beyond Good & Evil action,adventure,racing/driving 10/10/03 89%
MVP Baseball 2004 sports 03/09/03 89%
Dark Cloud 2 action,adventure,rpg 11/28/02 89%
NBA 2K2 2002 89%
Jak And Daxter: The Precursor Legacy action 12/01/01 89%
NHL 2002 sports 09/18/01 89%
NCAA Football 2002 sports 01/07/01 89%
LEGO Star Wars: The Video Game action,adventure 03/30/05 88%
Fight Night Round 2 action,sports 02/28/05 88%
MVP Baseball 2005 action,sports 02/22/05 88%
Midnight Club 3: DUB Edition action,racing/driving,sports 01/25/05 88%
ESPN College Hoops 2K5 action,sports 11/16/04 88%
Shadow Hearts: Covenant action,rpg 09/27/04 88%
Katamari Damacy action,adventure 09/21/04 88%
Fahrenheit action,adventure 2004 88%
Ratchet & Clank action 11/04/02 88%
DDRMAX Dance Dance Revolution simulation 10/29/02 88%
Suikoden III adventure,rpg 10/01/02 88%
Kingdom Hearts action,adventure,rpg 03/28/02 88%
NFL 2K2 sports 10/23/01 88%
NBA Street sports 06/09/01 88%
Madden NFL 2001 sports 08/23/00 88%
Winning Eleven 9 sports 12/31/69 88%
Call Of Cthulhu: Dark Corners Of The Earth action,adventure 12/31/69 88%
Call Of Duty 3 action 11/01/06 87%
Highest Rated Games
1.
Resident Evil 4 (PS2)
95.54%
Add to Watchlist
2.
GTA San Andreas (PS2)
95.51%
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3.
GTA Vice City (PS2)
95.19%
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4.
Metal Gear Solid 2 (PS2)
95.04%
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5.
Grand Theft Auto 3 (PS2)
94.59%
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6.
Virtua Fighter 4 Evolution (PS2)
94.52%
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7.
Tony Hawks Pro Skater 3 (PS2)
94.33%
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8.
God of War (PS2)
94.29%
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9.
Madden NFL 2002 (PS2)
94.00%
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10.
God of War 2 (PS2)
93.81%
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11.
Gran Turismo 3 (PS2)
93.38%
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12.
High Heat Major League Baseball 2004 (PS2)
92.89%
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13.
Pro Evolution Soccer 2 (PS2)
92.78%
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14.
Guitar Hero 2 (PS2)
92.68%
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15.
Timesplitters 2 (PS2)
92.59%
Add to Watchlist
16.
Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence (PS2)
92.56%
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17.
Burnout 3 (PS2)
92.44%
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18.
Prince of Persia (PS2)
92.35%
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19.
Shadow of the Colossus (PS2)
92.29%
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20.
NCAA Football 2003 (PS2)
92.27%
Add to Watchlist
21.
Final Fantasy XII (PS2)
92.20%
Add to Watchlist
22.
Ratchet and Clank 3 (PS2)
92.18%
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23.
Burnout Revenge (PS2)
91.91%
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24.
Ratchet and Clank 2 (PS2)
91.63%
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25.
Tony Hawks Pro Skater 4 (PS2)
91.50%
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26.
Metal Gear Solid 3 (PS2)
91.47%
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27.
Guitar Hero (PS2)
91.45%
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28.
Tony Hawks Underground (PS2)
91.43%
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29.
Okami (PS2)
91.13%
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30.
Madden NFL 2005 (PS2)
90.92%
Add to Watchlist
31.
Pro Evolution Soccer 3 (PS2)
90.81%
Add to Watchlist
32.
ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2)
90.67%
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33.
Madden NFL 2004 (PS2)
90.62%
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34.
ICO (PS2)
90.38%
Add to Watchlist
35.
Final Fantasy X (PS2)
90.36%
Add to Watchlist
36.
NBA Street 2 (PS2)
90.35%
Add to Watchlist
37.
SSX 3 (PS2)
90.28%
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38.
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2004 (PS2)
90.23%
Add to Watchlist
39.
ESPN NFL Football (PS2)
90.18%
Add to Watchlist
40.
Pro Evolution Soccer 4 (PS2)
90.08%
Add to Watchlist
41.
SSX Tricky (PS2)
90.05%
Add to Watchlist
42.
Tekken 5 (PS2)
89.94%
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43.
Viewtiful Joe (PS2)
89.83%
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44.
Madden NFL 2003 (PS2)
89.80%
Add to Watchlist
45.
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2003 (PS2)
89.80%
Add to Watchlist
46.
Devil May Cry (PS2)
89.79%
Add to Watchlist
47.
NBA Street (PS2)
89.77%
Add to Watchlist
48.
Jak and Daxter The Precursor Legacy (PS2)
89.71%
Add to Watchlist
49.
Soul Calibur 2 (PS2)
89.68%
Add to Watchlist
50.
Gran Turismo 4 (PS2)
89.41%
Add to Watchlist
51.
NCAA Football 07 (PS2)
89.36%
Add to Watchlist
52.
Pro Evolution Soccer 5 (PS2)
89.29%
Add to Watchlist
53.
SSX (PS2)
89.00%
Add to Watchlist
54.
Sly 2 (PS2)
88.71%
Add to Watchlist
55.
Splinter Cell (PS2)
88.69%
Add to Watchlist
56.
Escape From Monkey Island (PS2)
88.36%
Add to Watchlist
57.
Ace Combat 4 (PS2)
88.33%
Add to Watchlist
58.
Shin Megami Tensai Persona 3 (PS2)
88.32%
Add to Watchlist
59.
Medal of Honor Frontline (PS2)
88.30%
Add to Watchlist
60.
Red Faction (PS2)
88.27%
Add to Watchlist
61.
Suikoden 3 (PS2)
88.17%
Add to Watchlist
62.
NASCAR Thunder 2003 (PS2)
88.10%
Add to Watchlist
63.
Twisted Metal Black (PS2)
88.03%
Add to Watchlist
64.
Midnight Club 3 (PS2)
88.03%
Add to Watchlist
65.
Half-Life (PS2)
88.00%
Add to Watchlist
66.
Rumble Racing (PS2)
87.91%
Add to Watchlist
67.
Ratchet and Clank (PS2)
87.87%
Add to Watchlist
68.
Beyond Good and Evil (PS2)
87.82%
Add to Watchlist
69.
Katamari Damacy (PS2)
87.72%
Add to Watchlist
70.
Madden NFL 2001 (PS2)
87.69%
Add to Watchlist
71.
Guilty Gear X2 (PS2)
87.68%
Add to Watchlist
72.
Burnout 2 (PS2)
87.67%
Add to Watchlist
73.
Final Fantasy XI (PS2)
87.65%
Add to Watchlist
74.
Need for Speed Hot Pursuit 2 (PS2)
87.58%
Add to Watchlist
75.
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (PS2)
87.55%
Add to Watchlist
76.
NBA Street V3 (PS2)
87.43%
Add to Watchlist
77.
Devil May Cry 3 (PS2)
87.37%
Add to Watchlist
78.
Fight Night Round 2 (PS2)
87.37%
Add to Watchlist
79.
Virtua Fighter 4 (PS2)
87.16%
Add to Watchlist
80.
WWE Smackdown Here Comes the Pain (PS2)
87.11%
Add to Watchlist
81.
Kingdom Hearts (PS2)
87.00%
Add to Watchlist
82.
SOCOM 2 (PS2)
86.98%
Add to Watchlist
83.
Dark Chronicle (PS2)
86.96%
Add to Watchlist
84.
Fahrenheit (PS2)
86.88%
Add to Watchlist
85.
We Love Katamari (PS2)
86.87%
Add to Watchlist
86.
Champions of Norrath Realms of EverQuest (PS2)
86.81%
Add to Watchlist
87.
Mercenaries (PS2)
86.77%
Add to Watchlist
88.
Final Fantasy X2 (PS2)
86.77%
Add to Watchlist
89.
LEGO Star Wars 2 (PS2)
86.67%
Add to Watchlist
90.
Hot Shots Golf 3 (PS2)
86.50%
Add to Watchlist
91.
Frequency (PS2)
86.50%
Add to Watchlist
92.
Pro Evolution Soccer (PS2)
86.33%
Add to Watchlist
93.
Jak 2 (PS2)
86.33%
Add to Watchlist
94.
Pro Evolution Soccer 6 (PS2)
86.29%
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95.
Metal Gear Solid 2 Substance (PS2)
86.25%
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96.
NHL Hitz 2003 (PS2)
86.20%
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97.
Dragon Quest Journey of the Cursed King (PS2)
86.18%
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98.
Madden NFL 06 (PS2)
86.18%
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99.
Guitar Hero 3 (PS2)
86.06%
Add to Watchlist
100.
Incredible Hulk Ultimate Destruction (PS2)
85.95%
February 1st, 2009
Wow Ivan, a list. You didn’t really have to show me though as I already have a PS2, enjoy it, and am familiar with it’s library. As you said it took PS2 ten years to accumulate it. Give the Wii a chance, as it does have good games, is only at the beginning of it’s third year, is trouncing both PS3 and 360 sales combined, and has beaten Sony PS2 sales records for it’s time on the market.
February 1st, 2009
actually under 9 years, not ten.
February 1st, 2009
Come on, it’s a joke right?
Ivan doesn’t seriously expect anyone to bother reading that sort of ridiculous list, huh?
February 2nd, 2009
Now that I got to the bottom of the thread to comment…. I lost track of what I was commenting on….
*scrolls back up* Oh yes the Wii. I would actually consider picking up after another price cut or so. $250 is way to much to spend on a system to play 5 games.
February 2nd, 2009
Barnabe,
Don’t do it! You’ll regret it! …incidentally, if you DO get one, I’ll totally play Mario Kart online with you.
-Arvis
February 2nd, 2009
Yep, I’m there and all about some old school VC collecting, let alone the new Zelda’s, Mario’s, and Metroids… I think I’ll even put Wii Fit through it’s paces and see if it can give a Marine a decent workout.
February 2nd, 2009
Carl – Wii Fit couldn’t give an invalid a decent workout. You would be better off joining the local Y. Also how much memory does the Wii actually have? You may only be able to fit a few of those old school games on it before it fills up.
Arvis – There are a handful of Wii game out now, that I am interested in. And a handful more being released over the next year or so. If the Wii was under $200 I would consider it.
February 3rd, 2009
You put Wii Fit through it’s paces Barnabe? What was wrong with it? I think there is an SD slot for memory.
February 3rd, 2009
Its biggest flaws are the inability to queue up the exercises & the fact that you need to sit and have each exercise explained to you each time you do it. You can not skip the introduction. These two flaws kill any sort of momentum, or cardio benefit.
The mini games are fun, and the controls work pretty well. Overall, the game only provides a few weeks of fun. Once you unlock all of the games, it’s pretty much pointless to keep using it.
I was mistaken…the Wii does have SD and game cube memory card slots.
February 3rd, 2009
Ah well, guess I’ll wait for Fit 2 to fix those, but at least it set a precedent and laid a foundation for something better. I think I agree with you on waiting for the price drop then, as Fit was a big driver and I doubt I will catch up on 360 anytime within the next year or two to have spare time for other games (let alone those without achievements/trophies – every console needs to have these, they just make sense).
I remember reading something earlier today about a survey from Sony for PSP owners as to what they would like to see and the choices were like minigames, peripherals for console games, having it as a second controller, everything but having trophies/ranking, the one thing that could make the biggest difference between it and the DS.