Wii bubble deflating, PS3 holiday demand
This holiday season is a key one in the continuing battle for console supremacy. With both the PS3 and Xbox 360 receiving price cuts this year and both due to have motion-sensing controllers released next year, strong sales over Christmas are essential. And it looks as though it could be the PS3 heading most people’s wish lists over both the Xbox 360 and Wii.
According to Gamasutra, Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz thinks “the Wii bubble could be deflating,” and the PS3 could now be better placed than the Xbox 360 to take up the slack. Wii owners are apparently buying less titles this year than last while PS3 and Xbox 360 owners are buying (or planning to buy) more.
He said:
While we believe the Wii is likely to be a drag on overall software sales through the holiday, the impact should be limited to those publishers which have invested significantly in Wii development, with the biggest negative impact likely to be felt by Electronic Arts, which (unwisely in our view) heavily invested in Wii development for [2009].
Meanwhile, a survey conducted by Cowen suggests that 21 percent of respondents plans to buy a PS3 this holiday season. The Wii actually tops that with 26 percent but the Xbox 360 only managed 12 percent. A big part of this result for Sony could be due to PS2 owners finally deciding it’s time to move up to the next generation of consoles, with 32 percent claiming they are close to doing so.
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47 Responses to “Wii bubble deflating, PS3 holiday demand”
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November 26th, 2009
ps3 is having a nice black friday deal at walmart like infamous, batman: arkham asylum, and batman dark night on blu ray for $299.99. that is a grat deal. 360 is having a six game bundle like lego something ghost recon 2 and bunch of other small titles. i’d prefure the ps3 bundle.
November 26th, 2009
1. Wii
2. 360
3. PS3
Same as last year and the year before.
November 26th, 2009
anyone hear of kindom under fire? i juss saw this and wow… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMojQDWktto
November 26th, 2009
Good. If this is true, the consoles are exactly where they belong. Wii on the bottom, 360 in middle and PS3 on top. ‘Cause in terms of content released for the consoles this year and next, that is how it went. Fanboyism aside, please. I’m sure that people expecting PS3 to stay rock bottom (worldwide sales, not NDP) are in total denial.
November 26th, 2009
The boxing gloves are out ……..
November 26th, 2009
The last I saw the UK has Xbox outselling PS3 by 3:1 and in the USA Xbox is outselling PS3 by 2:1.
The PS3 slim boost is well ond truly over.
November 26th, 2009
Oh and the Wii is still on top everywhere but by a reduced margin than before.
November 26th, 2009
……with the possible exception of Japan – but even that remains (like most places although it isn’t really counted in this) a DS/DSi stronghold.
November 26th, 2009
Interesting information Dave, a month ago Gamasutra also made an analysis of the pattern of the software sales for big three from the beginnig up to this last september:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/25740/Analysis_Wii_Software_Sales_Slow_Down_In_2009.php
I wonder if the big three will be able to break the records imposed by themselves last year. I hope that NSMBW and Dark Side Chronicles help Nintendo a bit.
November 26th, 2009
People have short memories here. We had the same predictions last year and the year before that for the ps3 but here goes I may as well be the first this year…………..
2010 – YEAR OF THE PLAYSTATION 3!!!!!!!!
November 26th, 2009
This is just speculation. We have to wait and see.
I don’t think the 100 million PS2 owners have moved to next gen yet so we have to wait and see what they choose.
Going by last year is just stupid. The prices are a lot closer this year. Grow up.
November 26th, 2009
Con,
where have you been all year? 2009 was clearly the PS3′s year for exclusives.
You are right though, 2010 will also be the PS3′s year.
November 26th, 2009
Barnabe Jones,
since he doesnt have a PS3 he still think 2009 was the year of the 360. lol
November 26th, 2009
Yeah but BJ they didn’t sell all that well compared to the ones for xbox but in saying that ps3 has had some pretty sweet games this year which makes a nice change and as an xbox owner I’m hoping ms will up the ante next year in response so it’s all good!
November 26th, 2009
@ncaissie
You’re really taking that 100 million too literally that they are potential buyers. For a start I bought my ps2 because it was good value as a dvd player also (around this time dvd players were pretty expensive). I also bought my gf one as a “dvd” player so I could play ps2 at her house. I also had 3 of them break on me over the years and I know all my friends all had more than one.
So taking into account how many consoles the average user had, the wii sales(lets not forget the amount of childrens and party games on the ps2), the ps3 sales and xbox sales I think you’re way off in your 100 million prediction lol
November 26th, 2009
I think they both have some cards up their sleeves for 2010.
-Alan Wake
-Halo Reach
-GT5
-GOW3
-White Knight
-MAG
But I think they’re all due the first part of the year. That still leaves the holiday blockbusters up in the air.
November 26th, 2009
I’m kind of sick hearing about alan wake. Mass Effect 2 and Bioshock 2 will be top of my list even if they’re no longer exclusives some games deserve to be multi plat
November 26th, 2009
@CON
Why is it a different story for PS then Xbox?
I recall many of you giving the opposite argument when Xbox failures are mentioned.
Very funny!
November 26th, 2009
“So taking into account how many consoles the average user had”
But at the same time, my buddy is on his 6th 360 and yet mine and probably yours have never broken.
So you can’t really say ‘the average user had X PS2′s’ because we really don’t know.
Its probably a fair assumption to say the numbers were inflated a little by broken units tho (my first one arrived broken for the record!).
November 26th, 2009
Does anyone here with a ps3 version of call of duty wana do spec ops with me cause no one on my friends wants to do spec ops
November 26th, 2009
“I recall many of you giving the opposite argument when Xbox failures are mentioned.â€
The PS2 didn’t have a 3 year warranty and it’s also been on the market for a lot longer. I expect by the time (if they last that long) the 360 is $100 and been on the market for 8 years their sales figures will be inflated by replacement units too.
The “big shift†from PS2 to PS3 just didn’t happen and really, Sony only have themselves to blame.
November 26th, 2009
Btw my one and only PS2 slim is still going strong.
I’ll get though FFXII one day……….
November 26th, 2009
me_
That is pretty much my experience too.
I think it’s also a little bit fashionable.
All the kids in my extended family used to have PS2s.
Only one bought a PS3 and he has now sold it.
None of the rest are that interested in gaming anymore and are into PCs for work, music and movies.
They just moved on to doing the things.
A big slice of those claimed 100 million PS2 owners we imagine that are really into gaming simply are never coming back to gaming.
I guess those that are that bothered already bought their Xbox and/or PS3 some time ago.
Accepting that that 100 million number must be added to to include mk 1 Xbox guys & Gamecube owners I’d say that 64 million or so (with several million of those Wii owners on top – although not all cos it’s very clear Wii has genuinely opened up a new customer base) is not a bad rate of return I’d say.
Particularly as aging populations are a growing feature of Japan & Europe.
November 26th, 2009
no matter how you guys want to twist the PS2 numbers. it will go down as the Most Successful Console in video game History. enough said
November 26th, 2009
Fuck sake roca we’re talking about potential ps3 sales and you come out with such a stupid comment! What does that even fucking mean for this debate? Go back and play with your toys.
@ncas
The difference is the 3 year warranty. If it breaks you get it replaced.
30 something million 360s
20 something million ps3s
50 something million wiis
That’s 100 million right there. Ncas where’s your 100 million?
November 26th, 2009
@Happy
I was always going to get a PS3 for Tekken and Final Fantasy but when Sony lost exclusivity on them I changed my mind.
Losing all of the big name third party exclusive made the difference for me, and I’m probably not alone.
November 26th, 2009
“The last I saw the UK has Xbox outselling PS3 by 3:1 and in the USA Xbox is outselling PS3 by 2:1.”
Where’s the link for those figures?
November 27th, 2009
@Spidey,
VGC only has:
Wii: 6.2M
360: 3.9M
PS3: 2.5M
vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=UK&cons2=PS3®2=UK&cons3=X360®3=UK&weeks=250
Nowhere near 3:1, but still a 1.4M/64% lead.
November 27th, 2009
Sorry, 36% lead.
Europe:
Wii: 18.9M
PS3: 10.8M
360: 10.2M
Worldwide:
Wii: 57.3M
360: 33.6M
PS3: 27.0M
20% lead worldwide.
November 27th, 2009
@ CarlB
Thats more like it
November 27th, 2009
UK numbers are notoriously hard to get as we don’t have anything like NPD monthly.
But this was the available data –
Xbox 3:1 over PS3 in UK
h**p://ww.mcvuk.com/news/36642/Xbox-360-outselling-PS3-3-to-1
Can’t give you the link to the other story cos I can’t find it.
It was a black Friday week story saying Xbox was 2:1 up against PS3
(not really surprising when you see the discount coupon deals being done in the USA for Xbox during that week).
We’ll just have to see what NPD shows when it arrives.
Nevertheless Carlb’s numbers show what I was talking about (despite the degree of difference not being the same) namely that the PS3 slim bounce is over.
That in itself is pretty big news I’d say and worth noting regardless of whether you accept what I had initially posted.
No?
November 27th, 2009
“The “big shift†from PS2 to PS3 just didn’t happen and really, Sony only have themselves to blame.”
Agreed. Sony really should have left BC in. People don’t want two consoles to keep playing their PS2 games.
I know I wouldn’t. It’s bad enough having the Wii on the TV stand with the PS3.
November 27th, 2009
“30 something million 360s
20 something million ps3s
50 something million wiis”
Nice rounding ass hole. If you want to round of the numbers it’s more like
30M 360s
30M ps3s
60M wiis
It is a lot closer then you xbots want to admit.
I trust CarlBs numbers more then I trust you biased numbers.
“Worldwide:
Wii: 57.3M
360: 33.6M
PS3: 27.0M”
November 27th, 2009
what an idiot lol.
November 27th, 2009
@ncas
Try to focus on the meaning of “something” in my figures before you call them biased lol.
“I don’t think the 100 million PS2 owners have moved to next gen yet so we have to wait and see what they choose.”
Well according to you figures
30M 360s
30M ps3s
60M wiis
That adds up to 120 million new gen consoles. You’ve totally contradicted yourself by posting those numbers. How can you honestly claim there are 100 million ps2 owners???????? HA HA
Now who’s the asshole??
November 27th, 2009
“How can you honestly claim there are 100 million ps2 owners???????? HA HA”
uhmmm im sure there are waaay more PS2 owners than 100M
November 27th, 2009
Is he also forgetting that 25 million people bought a XBOX and 20 million also bought a gamecube. What about that extra 45 million.
All joking aside..the number games you guys are playing are a joke.
The ps2′s number didn’t start going insane until it hit $179. That put it at impulse buy status. If it hasn’t been more cleat than ever, that price is the true system seller.
November 27th, 2009
I know the numbers game is a bit of a joke but so is claiming there are a potential 100 million ps2 users. It just aint so……..
November 27th, 2009
“I know the numbers game is a bit of a joke but so is claiming there are a potential 100 million ps2 users. It just aint so”
Tell that to kev in half his arguments.
November 27th, 2009
“The ps2’s number didn’t start going insane until it hit $179. That put it at impulse buy status. If it hasn’t been more cleat than ever, that price is the true system seller.”
I’m not so sure phranctoast, it does seem clear that the Wii broke that rule consistently while it was at $249… and more recently since it has been $199, all the while outselling PS2 in the same time period and at a higher price. It seems any sales advantage the PS2 did have in price came in short lived spikes, more towards the launch of Wii and PS3 and before that near the around the launch of the 360.
vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=PS2®3=All&weeks=400
vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=PS2®3=All&start=38725&end=39446
November 29th, 2009
good point happy but I’m pretty sure wii broke most traditional records by being what it was…A gimmicky console adored by the population that doesn’t consistently play video games. In that respect it’s difficult to use it as an example.
November 30th, 2009
Where did happy say that phranc?
Moving on, does this mean sales of the 360 will go “insane” when it hits $179, the price that “is the true system seller”?
November 30th, 2009
“Where did happy say that phranc?”
where did he say what?
November 30th, 2009
Let me rephrase, which “good point” were you referring to?
November 30th, 2009
Lol. Got you two confused.
November 30th, 2009
“Moving on, does this mean sales of the 360 will go “insane†when it hits $179, the price that “is the true system sellerâ€?”
We started seeing it outsell the ps3 consistently from the point that it was $199 on until the recent ps3 price drop.
November 30th, 2009
“Moving on, does this mean sales of the 360 will go “insane†when it hits $179, the price that “is the true system seller—
if the one with a hard drive drops to $179 then….hell yeah sells will go insane