Wedbush analyst Pachter predicts Xbox 360 Natal will outsell PS3 Arc by 5-to-1
Natal Vs. Arc is drawing closer. Which side are you on? Chief crystal ball-gazer Michael Pachter is firmly ensconced in the Xbox corner, backing Natal over Arc to a huge degree.
The biggest battle of the year is set to be the one between the new motion-sensing control systems. In the red corner we have Natal on the Xbox 360, and in the blue we have Arc (probably) on the PS3. Setting himself as the commentator and analyst for this fight is Wedbush Morgan and Blorge favorite Michael Pachter.
Pachter has already given us his uninformed (and unasked-for) opinion on the pricing and the sales potential, and he’s now focused his opinion a little more, telling PS3 Center:
I think that the Sony motion controller will have some problems gaining traction, since it is not an “in the box” solution. That will probably limit adoption to one or two million at the outset. Natal is different… It’s only one piece (the camera), is likely to be cheaper, and I think it will come in the Xbox 360 package with new consoles once launched, meaning far deeper penetration.
Sony’s internal development is top notch, so I expect the launch titles to be fun, and likely on par with Wii Sports for quality, but ultimately, I think that the motion controller will only sell to 20 percent or less of the PS3 audience, limiting it’s [sic] appeal to third party publishers. A year or so after launch, there will be 10 million [Project Natal units] out there, which will probably attract more third party support. Also, I think Microsoft will subsidize third party development to make it a success.
For what it’s worth, I actually agree with Pachter on this one. But I think we should at least wait until they both launch before writing either off.
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February 22nd, 2010
in other news. . . pachter predicts pigs will fly on wednesday and it will rain money
February 22nd, 2010
has he ever been right?
February 23rd, 2010
I guess he just signed Natals death certificate.
February 23rd, 2010
Haters you know it’s true. The mere fact that it will be packaged into the 360 means that yes market penetration will be greater. I never thought about it like that before.
February 23rd, 2010
This battle between Arc and Natal should be interesting but I really wonder how well either will be received this late in the game. I’m sure people will look at both as “me too” attempts to compete with the wii.
That being said I see where Patcher is coming from and he is probably right.
IMO arc will be the more popular device among gamers because it can duplicate the most inovative part of the wii controller. It can point. Even though there is a drought of FPS on the wii the ability to point and shoot is incredible. Combine this with the PS3 library of outstanding FPS and HD graphics and I think gamers will be wondering how they got by without it. I also believe people will feel more comfortable with a physical controller, no matter what it looks like. I just don’t see Natal being as responsive as a controller method.
Now as far as Natal goes, I do think it will excell in some areas: facial recognition, exercise games and “interactive experiences” such as Milo. As far as shooters, racing, adventure, fighting ect… I am just very skeptical that it will work well enough to win gamers over. The point of Patcher’s statement though isn’t which will be better, but which will sell the most. Natal has MS backing it with I’m sure endless marketing/developement dollars. They plan on packing it in every new console box and selling it separatly at a low price. They also will make it seem easy to set up since it is a single piece of hardware. I have to agree that Natal will sell better when they launch. The question is will it work well enough to keep people using it.
My prediction is that after a huge launch Natal will prove to be too unresponsive for too many types of games and will find itself in closets where people use to keep their wiis. The PS3 wand will launch slower but prove to be very responsive and accurate and win many skeptical gamers over. Seeing this MS will develope their own “wand” that will work with the Natal camera and the two systems will be gridlocked in a fight for 2nd best motion controller on the market. In the meantime wii plus will have launched and Nintendo will continue to print it’s own money, one little white box full at a time.
February 23rd, 2010
Seeing this MS will develope their own “wand†that will work with the Natal camera
Personally I think it is already happening. Remember Gametrack Freedom. It had a launch date of October 15 and it never happened. It was suppose to come with a game called squeezeball. There was a comment after E3 where the developer said that it could possibly work with Microsoft to use the controller with Natal. It’s speculation but we’ll see what happens.
February 23rd, 2010
the arc is going to be as popular as the eye toy and little else. As for natal, that will all depend on the games and the performance and accuracy of the device.It could be a huge success for MS or it could end up just being just another eye toy copy.
February 23rd, 2010
@cad
there’s nothing stopping Sony from also releasing an sku with arc included. I already assumed it was happeneing.
@rimmer
eye toys had two problems. Lack of games and lack of marketing. In that respect I don’t see MS making the same mistakes as Sony did back then. They ready appear to be almost depending on it with the brands name at stake.
@gamer_thumb
basically agree with your whole post. I think arc will be better overall due to the 1 to 1 input that natal appears to lack and it’s ability to easily port wii games make it the new platform or HD shovelware. While shovelware doesn’t sound all that good the point I’m getting at is it will have more titles on it than natal.
February 23rd, 2010
How about neither?
Both look sucky. I dont see many hardcore gamers really getting too involved with either.
Well that and the Arc just looks like a female pleasure toy. That’s kind of disturbing.
February 23rd, 2010
@Fahkin
Can you imagine all the great games for women? And it vibrates
February 23rd, 2010
The arc is far too similar to the the wii remote in my opinion. Unless they target a more mature audience then wii is going to get first choice every time.
February 23rd, 2010
i think arc and natal will both sell well. . . the xbox and ps3 both have massive userbases and if there is good marketing put into both then both ms and sony will reap the rewards.
but i think sony should have the sku with arc, dualshock 3 and a game ,still at the 300euro price point. then arc would be in a lot of homes
February 23rd, 2010
It will come down to how welL the developers implement Natal and the Arc with the games that are released.
February 23rd, 2010
“The arc is far too similar to the the wii remote in my opinion. Unless they target a more mature audience then wii is going to get first choice every time.”
3rd party games dont sell well on the Wii. Dead Space Extraction, Resident Evil, No More Heroes, Mad World, etc…….all sold poorly on the Wii
I see Natal more of a few extra “in-game” functions while still playing the game with a 360 joyspad
February 23rd, 2010
“I see Natal more of a few extra “in-game†functions while still playing the game with a 360 joyspad”
That and the slapping balls away from your face mini game.
February 23rd, 2010
“Haters you know it’s true. The mere fact that it will be packaged into the 360 means that yes market penetration will be greater. I never thought about it like that before.”
LOL because Xbots are stupid and like to waste money on any POS MS puts out.
February 23rd, 2010
They can have it all they want. I hope Sony looses big on that garbage and learns a lesson.
February 23rd, 2010
“Can you imagine all the great games for women? And it vibrates ”
I think the GOW sex mini games will be a lot more fun! LOL
February 23rd, 2010
You people are missing the point. MS and Sony don’t care if you buy it. They are only doing this to get a chunk of the Wii crowd.
February 23rd, 2010
and Woops… that same camera starts broadcasting the video of the woman up on the web. Oh Noes!
February 23rd, 2010
LOL
February 23rd, 2010
Sony’s Dyer predicts more games for PlayStation Motion Controller than Natal
http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/23/sonys-dyer-predicts-more-games-for-playstation-motion-controlle/
February 23rd, 2010
I can see the PS3′s Arc having more games because most Wii games will be easier to port and Sony probably have a good chuck of their 1st party studios working on Arc games. also there are a good amount of games that are already out that will be patched to be Arc compatible like LBP, Pain, Heavy Rain, High Velocity Bowling etc…so PS3 owner that already own those games can give it a try on day one
February 23rd, 2010
CAD said Natal will get Killer Instincs 3…
February 23rd, 2010
Fighters are really fun with lag. /sarcasm
February 23rd, 2010
My prediction : Neither will enter my house unless they are free.
February 23rd, 2010
I already have the PSeye so if the wand portion of it is cheap enough and they do plan on supporting games I want to play I’ll pick it up.
February 23rd, 2010
im in the same boat as Phranc.
February 23rd, 2010
I’m with SW.
If I want motion shit I would play the Wii.
February 23rd, 2010
Exactly.
February 23rd, 2010
The 360 still working twilight?
Try leaving it on with a game playing over night and see how it does.
I leave my PS3 on all the time. Specially if I’m not at a save point in GOW LOL.
February 23rd, 2010
I wouldnt invest too much money on it…..just in case
…..I bet there are just too many PS3 games to keep 360 “cool” enough for the rest of the year.
February 23rd, 2010
Ncaissie,
Lol. The last time I played the Xbox360 demo disc the system was workikng.
Roca,
I will still probably continue to buy most of my games for the Ps3 system.
February 24th, 2010
@Twilight
If i would be you, i would back up my data on ps3 b4 every firmware..
February 24th, 2010
“The 360 still working twilight?
Try leaving it on with a game playing over night and see how it does.
I leave my PS3 on all the time. Specially if I’m not at a save point in GOW LOL.”
Are you kidding me. I leave my shit running all the time especially on weekends. Ask any one of the 360 guys here. I left Bioshock in the tray running all day Sunday and even left a few times and never have issues and my box does not heat up. I have never even seen RROD.
February 24th, 2010
Twilight now that you are a Multiplatform owner distance yourself from the idiots unless you want to remain ignorant then by all mean do yourself an injustice.
February 24th, 2010
She’s been a multiplatform owner for a while now. Recently her 360 broke on her prior to her friend getting her a new one. Geeze cad, having trouble following all this?
Twilight.
You should do the opposite of carlb method,and only rent 360 games and purchase ps3 games.
February 24th, 2010
“I have never even seen RROD.” Just look at phranctoast’s avatar. It has 3 red lights.
February 24th, 2010
“I have never even seen RROD.”
thats because you put green tape your 360 flashing lights
February 24th, 2010
No I have not been following but Toshi shed some light on it the other day. Apparently she had a 360 and PS3 break on her but she had to pay for her PS3 to get fixed and got rid of her 360 that could have been fixed for free. Is my info correct? I would like to hear from Twilight not the morons.
February 24th, 2010
she got her ps3 replaced, i cant believe how excellent sonys customer service is
February 24th, 2010
actually she returned the PS3 in exchange for a new one. the big difference was that her 360 was DEAD, while her PS3 was just having issues syncing with the controller.
February 24th, 2010
Cad,
Roca is correct. I had just brought a new slim system so I exchanged the system at the store for another system. The system failed within the store’s return policy so I just exchanged the system at the store. I updated the system and changed out the controller and the new controller still would not connect with the system without using the usb cable.
February 24th, 2010
Twilight,
OK so knowing all this and you still bash the 360? I don’t get it. I only wished you contacted Sony Customer service. I would have love to hear who that would have went down.
LOL @ Phranctoat still talking without fact ha.
February 24th, 2010
Cad, I’ve always generally supported both systems. I just love video games. I started gaming with the Ps1 and the Dreamcast and then moved on to the other systems as they came out. I was one of the people that waited in line inside the store all night long at launch time to get a Xbox360. I was equally as passionate about the Ps3 system. I stood in line early to pre-order the launch Ps3 when this system was first launched to make sure I got one. I was one of the few people who brought both systems at launch time. My Xbox360 died three days after I got the system. It was repaired twice so I sold the Xbox360 system that I had and left the Xbox360 system alone. However, people said they fixed the problem with the red ring of death issue so I decided years later to give the system another shot and it failed again. This is why I said that I would never by another Xbox360 system again after this.
February 25th, 2010
@CAD
huh?
February 25th, 2010
Twilight
Well that is a fair statement. I can understand that kind of frustration. I personally never had any major issues like that. I can only hope that this time around it last for you. There are so many great titles out and coming plus I think Natal will be huge. Your not as bias as I thought. Word of advice, try to install the games that you play most often because that will stop the disk tray from running and the 360 will stay cool.
Out of curiosity what is the wattage output on the back located near the Made in China? Is it 12.1?
February 25th, 2010
“I have never even seen RROD.â€
thats because you put green tape your 360 flashing lights
LOL Oh that what that is.
February 25th, 2010
Cad,
It’s the latest model of the Jasper Xbox360 again. It has the smaller power brick. I hope this one lasts.