Analysts: 25 million Kinect units by 2014
Various analysts have given their opinion on how well Kinect will sell. The result? Very well, in a nutshell.
It’s fair to say that Kinect has been a hit so far, with Microsoft boasting of selling its first one million units in just 10 days. But will the Xbox 360′s motion control system carry on selling well for the rest of the life of the console?
According to Eurogamer, Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls predicts Microsoft will sell 25 Kinect units by 2014, based on the assumption that the Xbox 360 will have an installed userbase of around 75 million by then (8 million consoles sold per year from here on in). Colin Sebastian from Lazard Capital Markets agrees with this figure in principle.
However, our favorite crystal ball-gazer Michael Pachter thinks it may be too early to tell because we don’t yet have all the facts at hand (which is most unlike him). His point being that Microsoft could cut the price significantly or even bundle Kinect with every new Xbox 360 sold. In which case the numbers could shoot up considerably. And he does, for once, have a good point. Mark the day in your diaries, folks.
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37 Responses to “Analysts: 25 million Kinect units by 2014”
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November 20th, 2010
A sad day for gaming indeed.
November 20th, 2010
The saddest thing about motion control is that the ‘non-gaming world’ everytime they see something like this (kinect, wii) they go “oooh, that looks cool” while the ‘gaming’ world goes *groan*.
That’s why they sell so much because it’s not the ‘gaming’ public (on the whole) that buy this type of shit it’s the ignorant general public.
November 20th, 2010
I seriously doubt it.
November 20th, 2010
The line actually starts with the Xbox360 fans who are Microsoft’s puppets on a string. Microsoft says jump and they just ask “how high?”
November 20th, 2010
lol Black Friday “deals”:
4gb 360 with a game… $199
or a 160 gig PS3 with a game… $199
4gb? lol most phones have more than that.
November 20th, 2010
BJ,
Who’s selling the Ps3 for the $199?
November 20th, 2010
The only customers purchasing Kinect are pornstars and strippers. Now porners can view genitalia in 1080p HD.
Oh by the way has anyone seen the new Harry Potter movie yet?
I’ll wait 2 months before it’s available to download on Vuze.
November 20th, 2010
Sega,
I haven’t seen the newest Harry Potter yet Sega. I do like the Harry Potter movies though. I don’t go to the movies as much as I used to. People annoy me at the movies. I usually just wait for most movies to come out on blu ray. Did you see the Last Airbender movie? Was the Last Airbender any good?
November 20th, 2010
Twilight,
My bad. I misread it. It’s actually $299 from GameStop.
November 20th, 2010
I totally agree with you! Everytime I go to the Showcase people are always talking during the movie, giving each other handjobs, babies crying, and cell phone ringers going off!
I haven’t been to a Showcase in almost 2 years I’m afraid.
I was thinking about going today but decided to buy pizza instead. I have the last Harry Potter movie on Bluray.
I heard that Airbender was horrible!!
November 20th, 2010
I have doubts it will, but I cannot seriously say it won’t. Honestly, I never thought Kinect would be popular at THIS point in time. Ahh, alas, I must have been naive to think idiot consumers wouldn’t gobble this shite up like waffles and eggs. One trip through your local Best Buy, and you’ll find the curious and uninitiated flapping and flailing to this lag fest. I couldn’t be bothered to try, but my sodding brother did! He loved Dance Central, especially the hip hop songs (my brother was born here, so he’s the atypical American, interested in terrible pop music). I have to say though, if there is a game that works (REALLY WORKS) as well as Dance Central that I’m interested in, I may be inclined to at least demo the damned thing. But from what I’ve seen, this doesn’t look plausible for my 360
November 20th, 2010
BJ,
It’s okay. It’s no big deal. I have a friend that I was going to give the information to that was wanting to get a Ps3.
November 20th, 2010
Gamestop PS3 bundle comes with 3 games, GOW Collection & GOW3
November 20th, 2010
That chic from Harry Potter was hot, but now that she cut her hair… meh.
November 20th, 2010
Really, I don’t see what the problem is or how it somehow started with Microsoft. The people who are buying Kinect are of the same ilk as Eyetards, Wiitards, and Movetards who really get into crap casual games (not it). Today is as sad as those days were and we still survived, so nothing to see here, move along.
November 20th, 2010
excellent post dans, I agree.
November 21st, 2010
I know that this going off topic but I’m currently listening to the Halo 2 Soundtrack Disk sets 1 @ 2, and just realized that a couple of the songs were not featured in the game OR were cut short.
November 21st, 2010
CarlB has a point…It’s not like companies are forcing customers to buy that crap stuff but people do. And it makes ANGRY how GULLIBLE people are!!! Everyone just has to follow the crowd…
November 21st, 2010
Exactly. And they think they somehow “show” the crowd how their crap is “superior” (even though they are still just following the dumbass consumer mass mentality) and bought Move/Kinect at launch even though it doesn’t have any superior games in it’s lineup.
November 22nd, 2010
Ouch, that had to hurt:
http://bitmob.com/articles/yes-i-am-the-first-moron-to-be-hospitalized-by-the-kinect
November 23rd, 2010
I guess it comes with maturity..My dad would always tell me “Wait until the product has been on the market for a while” lol. But he’s right…that gives me a chance to sniff out the kinks
November 23rd, 2010
@ BJ
tou wrote “4gb 360 with a game… $199
or a 160 gig PS3 with a game… $199
4gb? lol most phones have more than that.”
What utter bollox!
I got The Xbox360 slim 250GB with 3 games for £199
Forza 3, Hola 3 and ODST. from PC world .and OK the halo games I don’t like but still.
and the P$3 deal is £299 NOT £199?
For £299 you can get the XBOX360 with Kinect and 3 games for under £299 I know which most parents would buy. .
November 23rd, 2010
or you could get a Xbox 250GB slim and around 6 games. . good games. .PS3 is not competitive
November 23rd, 2010
If you look properly godless, BJ is talking in dollars not pounds.
“PS3 is not competitive”
You only have to look at the sales figures to know that is bullsh*t.
November 24th, 2010
dollars / pounds same thing, what you can get for $100 in the US you can get for £100 in the UK
PS3 is selling because it has a huge and loyal following. Those upgrading from a PS1,PS2 PSP etc, are way more likely to buy a PS3, and I forget the figures but it something like 140,000,000 PS2 owners alone.
In contrast to that, the Xbox is the new kid, with a public that are not exactly in love with Microsoft and with a user base of just 24 million from the 1st gen xbox not to mention the balls up with the first couple of 360 revisions where the RROD has left a lasting doubt in a lot of peoples minds. .even you guys still harp on about how unreliable the xbox is more than 3 years after the RROD issue was resolved.
So when you consider that the PS3 is still behind the xbox 360 in sales after 4 years, and the fact that the PS3 has lost Sony Billions trying to compete with the xbox , you can’t possibly say that it is competitive. Do you honesty think you would be able to buy a PS3 for £299 if it were not for the xbox. .I don’t think so, .it would still be selling at £600, and Sony would be making some money from it.
Sony are only trying as hard as they are. .not to please all the loyal gamers, as you like to think, but to try and compete against a MS who stepped in to the arena and all but blew them out of the water.
You’d best pray that they do something better for the PS4 or they will be Screwed, the New xbox proposals with full backward compatibility with graphical enhancement and frame rate to existing 360 games is something Sony had best take heed of or they will sink. If Sony continue to lose billions year on year, the shit will hit the fan and shareholders will pull the plug on their investment. Sony was all hype with the PS3 they had a full year of extra development and what did it get over the Xbox in regards to gaming. .F all. They need to step up to the mark.
November 24th, 2010
@Godless
You live in a dream world. There’s so many problems with your post, I can’t even address them all prior to leaving for work. I’ll hit you up later
November 24th, 2010
First things first. The Xbox 360 has better deals for it in the UK than in the US. The UK 360 also has better deals for it than the PS3 does in the UK.
In the US however, they’re virtually identical in their deals. What you get for $299 in usual circumstances is relatively the same for both consoles.
Now you need to watch that word you keep throwing around..
******”Competitive”*******
Dan brings up a good point. Wouldn’t sales data show that the PS3 is not only competitive, but perceived as a higher value as it’s cut the 360′s lead from 8.7M to 2.9M since Nov 2006? All this done with a machine that’s been more expensive until Sept 09.
Now if your idea of a competitive deal you get on Black Friday is the reason for this, all you need to do is add on the cheapest possible 3D profile 2.0 Blu Ray player to the 360′s bundle and see where you end up with a “Competitive price point”.
November 24th, 2010
I have yet to see the spec on how the PS3 performs as a 3D blu ray player I’ll bet that it’s shit when standing up against the new stand alone 3D players.
It is already way down the list as far as standard blu ray playback is concerned, so I’d be willing to bet the frame rate and overall picture quality on 3D will be poor.
I also don’t have a 3D TV and I wont be getting one until the next generation of consoles are here. By then the processing power will allow for fast frame rate 3D graphics
And the cost of the Tech will have dropped for 3D TVs.
So for now 3D is not a selling point for me, or about 99% of the population I would guess.
And No, looking at the sales figures. .I’m inclined to think . why the hell is the PS3 still in last place. .It should by all accounts be where the WII is now. .with a Sony user base of well over 140 million gamers I would not expect it to still be playing catch up to a machine with a user base of 24 million and one plagued by reliability issues for the first two years of its life.
I also ask myself why is it that the PS3 is not the clear winner regarding game performance, it had over a full years extra development with a long legacy of game consol development to build on.
In that year we saw almost a doubling of graphic performance in the PC sector.
Why is the PS3 not a marked improvement over the xbox for games performance? with more detailed textures, higher poly counts, better rendering all the things that and extra year should have given them is just not there.
And on launch it still cost way too much, and ever since has been sold at a loss simply to try and stay in the competition. The entire history of the PS3 is one Sony will look back on and think. .what a balls up that was. I think they seriously underestimated the competition. And if they do the same again they will be setting themselves up for a fall.
November 24th, 2010
http://reviews.cnet.com/best-blu-ray-players/
Shows how the PS3 stacks up against Blu Ray players.
I’ll search for reviews for 3D blu ray players in bit.
The PS3 uses HDMI 1.3 where HDMI 1.4 is required for the standard. 1.4 has higher bandwidth than 1.3 so some cuts have to be made. My guess is the PS3 only runs two separate eyes at 1080i instead of 1080p, but until I dig up more, that is only a guess.
I have a DLP TV where I can buy a conversion kit for $300 on Amazon.
h*tp://www.amazon.com/dp/B003KTN0B4?tag=i4ufututechne-20&camp=213381&creative=390973&linkCode=as4&creativeASIN=B003KTN0B4&adid=110RKDDT5PTPMJZJF5Q8&
3D while not a selling point to you or 99$ of the population will just migrate into the living room whether you like it or not anyway. Early adopters will bare the brunt of the higher expense.
Regardless if a 3D blu ray player, or a blu ray player in general are selling points to you, they both still represent something that the competition lacks and they mean something to some people.
You’re next point you kind of half answer yourself.
Wii outsold the PS3 as it launched at $250, not $600 and a much broader appeal to the casual population. Not even the PS2 sold as quick as the wii. Remember…a high ammount of the 140M you said came when the system was cheap, and at the end of it’s lifetime. The 360 reliability helped sales in a way. Not all consoles got replaced by MS. Some people straight up don’t bother and buy new, and some people. without the slightest of doubt, I believe there are more functional PS3′s in peoples homes right now than 360′s.
You’re also insulting the strides that MS made when releasing a year prior and having a decent category of games following the success of the Xbox. Remember. MS closed up Xbox shop for the 360, and completely switched over. The 360 community may not be as strong if Xbox fans felt they were pushed to the next box because of lack of support.
Reliability for only two years of the 360′s life. You’re joking right? Let’s be honest…It’s not until the 360 Slim just released where they finally got it right. And look…they still offer a 3 year warranty on it for a reason.
Ahhh performance. It’s true. Some games that are developed with the 360 in mind first and the PS3 second perform worse on the PS3. When this is the other way around we the the performance roles reversed (Vanquish and Castlevania come to mind as recent multiconsole games that perform better on PS3).
Also the tech in the PS3 is not a year ahead of tech in the 360. IBM copied the tech that was in the Cell for the triple core 360 CPU, so they’re more similar than you think. It kind of sucks that in a way, Sony paid for the research and development of the 360′s CPU.
Can’t argue with launch costs, but if you were into blu ray from the beginning like I was, than it was perceived as a value right from the get go.
MS needs to work on getting some more first party games. Heavy reliance on games that are also going to appear on the PS3 is not a great strategy.
Since 2008 (sources are multiple sites and reviews) the PS3 has releases better games than the 360. You’ll realize that next year when the only games you play on your 360 are multiplatform games.
November 24th, 2010
@Godless
http://www.bigpicturebigsound.com/full-hd-1080p-3d-tv-from-hdmi-1-3.shtml
This will help a bit with the tech related to PS3 3D Blu Ray playback.
Still looking for reviews of the PS3 as a BRD player/.
November 24th, 2010
@Godless
“even you guys still harp on about how unreliable the xbox is more than 3 years after the RROD issue was resolved.”
The RROD has not been resolved. It’s naive And uninformed people like you keeping MS in the gaming market.
Oh now it is RDOD for the slim. Same shit different pile.
Nice try though.
November 24th, 2010
“I have yet to see the spec on how the PS3 performs as a 3D blu ray player I’ll bet that it’s shit when standing up against the new stand alone 3D players.”
The PS3 is older tech so of coarse it won’t be as good. But that doesn’t mean it is bad or isn’t better than a lot of BR players. What does a 360 have? DVD and a obsolete format HD DVD. It is a no brainier.
November 24th, 2010
@ Ncaissie
LOL @ DVD being obsolete. .considering over 95% of movie sales are still in this format???
Getting Dated yes, obsolete not for a year or two yet. Most people still have TV with standard dev, a fair few have HD TVs ie 720p DVD and then there are the better of how have full HD 1080p which does the blu ray.
This year will most likely see full HD take off in a big way, and blu ray movies will do the same, it’s almost exactly what happened with the transition from tape to DVD.
You’re next gen consol is very likely not to have any disk player at all, as we move into a new era of streaming video format, all physical formats will be rendered obsolete. So my guess is that DVD will last just as long as blu ray, before they are both replaced by . . well nothing :^ ) it will be like what Itunes did for music, only for movies.
November 24th, 2010
sorry typos. .”Better off, who have full HD”
November 24th, 2010
Learn to read dude. I said HD DVD is obsolete not DVD.
Although DVD is dropping off and it won’t be long.
November 24th, 2010
“Most people still have TV with standard dev, a fair few have HD TVs ie 720p DVD and then there are the better of how have full HD 1080p which does the blu ray.”
That is funny, pretty much everyone I know has HD TVs. Even the people with very little money. I’m not sure because I haven’t shopped for a TV for a year now but do they even sell SD TVs anymore? Maybe in the US they are slow to adopt. Not sure. But here I would say the majority have HD.
November 25th, 2010
Last year Over 75% of HD TVs sold were to the HD 720p spec. with around 19% at HD 1080P. .this year will most likely see that change as the 1080P TVs drop from over £700 of last year to between £300 – 400 for entry models this year. Still less than 1% of TV sold are 100hz or above and 3D compatible at full frame rate.. (These figures are form the Kesa Electricals group. ie.Comet Dixons, PC world etc.)
Guys, it’s not hard to tell most of you are American. .the rest of the world is not like America, not quite as consumer driven as you are (except Japan maybe), though sadly we are all getting that way.
Most people don’t feel the need to have the very latest cutting edge tech in there living room, in the UK it’s a niche market till it becomes slowly but surely more common. .In the UK, we have recently switched to digital broadcast after 2 years of being told we all need to up grade to digital. .Now! you’d think that’s the end of all the old analogue TV. .No, over 70% of household still own the old TVs, what they did was buy a digital set top box for £40 that allows them to watch digital telly on the old TV. Why do you think the consoles still ship with the more expensive old style composite interface and not a cheaper HDMI cable.
So over here most people do not have HD and fewer still have full 1080p HD